When the Miami Heat look into their crystal ball and try to plot the future of Dwyane Wade, what will they see?
It might be Kobe Bryant. And that's not necessarily a good thing.
Bryant is a five-time champion, one of the best ever to step on the hardwood. But Bryant also offers a cautionary tale about star shooting guards entering their mid-30s.
Wade will turn 34 years old next season. What did Bryant do in his age-34 season? He averaged 27.3 points per game next to Dwight Howard while playing a whopping 38.6 minutes a night. In the 80th game that season, Bryant's Achilles tendon snapped.
That was just the beginning of Bryant's injury ills. After an arduous rehab, Bryant returned in December the next season and played all of six games before suffering a season-ending fracture in his left knee. Last season, he lasted 35 games before a shoulder injury ended his age-36 campaign in January.
Who is Wade's closest statistical comparison at this point in his career? That name is Bryant, according to ESPN Insider guru Kevin Pelton's statistical model called SCHOENE, which analyzes 13 factors (including age, height and weight) to create a nifty similarity score. The 2012 Bryant was the best match, registering a 96 similarity score (100 is a carbon copy) to this current version of Wade.
And after looking at several other historical comps for Wade, the message is clear for the Heat: go long on Wade at your own risk.