After one of the busiest trade deadlines in NBA history, we try to make sense of what's happening in the league. One of the recent trends in cap management has been the shifting toward short-term flexibility.
There are more teams with cap space entering the offseason every year, and free agent deals are getting shorter. Coupled with the natural growth of the cap, the expected 2016 explosion as a result of the new TV rights deal and the changing value we put on different roles on court, and it's easy to see how trying to project free agent valuations this far in advance can be difficult. Using precedents, a major component in estimating free agent value, becomes less effective, as the deals handed out even as recently as last summer can be below market value this summer.
Many teams will approach this summer with a more willing attitude toward higher-dollar deals as they'll be seen as "discounts" over what contract negotiations are projected to be in 2016. As it is, the cap is expected to rise to about the $66 million level (up from $63.1 million this season), the ensuing maximum individual salary limits are expected to rise, as well (they're expressed as a percentage of the cap in the CBA).
While max salaries are tied to the cap number, all cap exceptions (rookie scale, biannual exception, midlevel exception, etc.) are pre-determined through the expiry of the CBA. This will also cause complications in future free agent valuations, as a higher cap creates a large gulf between value of an "average" NBA player and the value of the midlevel exception, which has been traditionally looked at as the median salary of the middle class NBA (in previous CBAs, it was literally the average salary) player. It's a fascinating topic that we'll address in a future piece.
Bearing this in mind, the following is my first iteration of ranking 2015's free agents. Remember, this is sorted by the average annual value (AAV) of the new contracts I believe each player deserves under the rules of the CBA.
To make my contract value estimates, I used many of the same factors I used as a member of the Phoenix Suns' front office: age, injury history, value of recent comparable player contracts, irreplaceability of skill set, contribution to winning, history of production, fit with style and culture, marketability and current cap situation, among other things. I used max salaries based off the higher projected 2015 cap rather than current max salaries.
Remember, this is not a ranking of the best free agents -- it lines them up based on projected AAV; and the AAVs listed below represent my estimation of the approximate value of each player, not a prediction of what the player will receive on the market in 2015. (Values denoted in millions of dollars.) The contract valuations for many of these players are almost guaranteed to change, as their 2014-15 performances will affect their worth, but it is important to get a gauge of where the different prospects stand.
UFA=Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA=Restricted Free Agent; PO=Player Option
1. LeBron James | SF | Age: 30 | PO
2014-15 team: Cleveland Cavaliers
2014-15 salary: $20.6 million
Suggested AAV: $22.7 million/year ($45 million over two years, player option on second year)