This NLDS features the greatest 1-2 pitching combo to appear in the postseason since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, versus the best stable of young starting pitchers we have seen in a long time. It features a couple of bullpens that might have issues. It features a couple of teams with a lot of moving parts offensively, with lineups that will change daily. It features two dangerous teams, but each clearly has flaws. It features the Los Angeles Dodgers versus the New York Mets, and it's going to be great.
Here are five questions.
1. How great are Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw?
Zack Greinke went 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA this season. Greg Maddux is the only other pitcher (minimum: 20 starts) in major league history to have a winning percentage that high and an ERA that low in any season since earned runs became an official statistic in the National League in 1912 and in the American League in 1913 (Maddux went 19-2 with a 1.63 ERA in 1995). Clayton Kershaw recorded 301 strikeouts this season; he and Sandy Koufax are the only Dodgers to strike out 300 in a season. Kershaw and Pedro Martinez (in 1997 and 1999) are the only pitchers since 1912 to throw 200 innings in a season, strike out 300 and have an ERA under 2.15. Martinez won the Cy Young each year, but Kershaw likely will finish third in the voting this year. Kershaw has a 5.12 ERA in his postseason career. He is as competitive as any pitcher you'll ever see, and he's determined to remove the stigma about postseason failures. We're sure that he will. And he will start Game 1 because he is best-suited to start on three days' rest, if needed.
2. What about the Mets' rotation?
The Mets are throwing the guys with the best stuff, which makes the most sense when you're in the playoffs and you're facing, at least for the first two games, Kershaw and Greinke. So Jacob deGrom will start in Game 1, Noah Syndergaard in Game 2 ("his last start was the best I've ever seen him throw," said one scout) and Matt Harvey in Game 3. Then, if Steven Matz's back allows him to pitch, he could start Game 4. Bartolo Colon is available for Game 4 if Matz can't go, or the Mets could bring deGrom back for Game 4. Either way, the Mets will have a really good starting pitcher in every game of the series.
3. Is playing Corey Seager instead of Jimmy Rollins at shortstop the right move for the Dodgers?
We will see. The upside on Seager is so high, one NL manager said "he's the second-best hitter (after Adrian Gonzalez) on their team." When you're the Dodgers, and you haven't been to the World Series since 1988, and you have the highest payroll in the history of the game, and the expectations are so exceptionally high, you take a chance with Seager. He's going to be one of the game's best players before long. Defensively, he is not as reliable as Rollins, which could wind up hurting the Dodgers. But they have to have his bat in the lineup.
4. How are these bullpens?
The Dodgers have a gap between their starters and closer Kenley Jansen, a gap that can be closed with an extra inning or two from Greinke and Kershaw. The Dodgers simply can't count on their bullpen to get three critical outs in the seventh inning, or earlier. The Mets have a young closer, Jeurys Familia, who has never thrown a pitch in a postseason game. His stuff is tremendous, but those three outs in the ninth are a little harder to get in October. And do the Mets, without Matz in the bullpen, have a reliable left-hander in their pen to get Gonzalez out in the seventh inning in a key spot?
5. What is the status of the Mets' offense?
The Mets scored 3.5 runs per game prior to the trade deadline, and then for almost six weeks after the deadline, they averaged six runs per game, mostly due to the hot hitting of trade-deadline acquisition Yoenis Cespedes. But Cespedes went through a couple of slumps and got hit by a couple of pitches, and the Mets stopped scoring runs late in the season. Now, manager Terry Collins will mix and match at first base, second base, shortstop and in the outfield to find the right formula to go against Kershaw and Greinke. But is there a formula for hitting those two guys and beating them, especially at Dodger Stadium? The Dodgers went 55-26 at home and 37-44 on the road.
Dodgers in five