A very rough, pretty optimistic estimate suggests that Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers will produce about 90 to 95 more runs than last year's Padres outfield. That's about 10 wins worth of offense. However, that doesn't include defense, which is a potential problem if Kemp or Myers plays center field on a regular basis, or the possibility Kemp gets injured or Myers just isn't as good as everyone once believed.
Still, it's been an exciting few days for new general manager A.J. Preller and Padres fans. Besides the three outfielders, Preller acquired catcher Derek Norris and reclamation project Will Middlebrooks to play third base. We don't know what will happen. It could be an insanely genius series of moves or it could be hype that fizzles with a bunch of fly balls to the Petco Park warning track and doubles in the gap as we see the backs of Kemp and Myers chasing after baseballs.
But what did Preller have to lose? The Padres have been boring and bad for years, with just one winning season since 2007 (a flukey 90-win season in 2010) and no postseason trip since 2006. Attendance, over three million in 2004, has hovered around two million in recent seasons.
So Padres fans are buzzing. So is Twitter:
Padres officially most exciting baseball team of the month. up from previous post-2010 high of 30th
— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) December 19, 2014
It's like The Padres' 12 Days of Christmas. Kemp. Upton. Norris. Partridge coming soon. Quick, is there a player named Partridge?!?
— Scott Miller (@ScottMillerBbl) December 19, 2014
There hasn't been a Cole Hamels/Padres rumor yet and I want there to be one so badly.
— Marc Normandin (@Marc_Normandin) December 19, 2014
Big upside SD offense. 3 concerns: OF defense could be shaky; lineup is very RHed; SD market is about winning, not just making a splash.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 19, 2014
#Padres kind of doing what #Bluejays did few yrs back Using system to add big-time players. It hasn’t worked for Tor. Curious if will for SD
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 19, 2014
Sure, this could end up like the 2013 Blue Jays, when they added Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson. They were a trendy World Series pick. Big names! Sexy names! The Blue Jays won one more game than the previous season, finishing 74-88.
So the Padres line-up is currently six RHBs, Yonder Alonso, a random shortstop, and a pitcher. They’re going to see so many sliders.
— David Cameron (@DCameronFG) December 19, 2014
It will be interesting to see how the power plays out in Petco. Even Middlebrooks and second baseman Jedd Gyorko have 25-homer potential. The Padres were 28th in the majors in home runs in 2014, ahead of only the Cardinals and Royals. I'll go out a limb and say they won't be that low again.
Thoughts on Preller and the #Padres:... http://t.co/dGh7lGhWMY
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 19, 2014
I certainly can't recall a team making a series of big moves like this in such a short period of time, maybe not even one offseason (the Blue Jays got Reyes, Buehrle and Johnson in one trade with the Marlins). That Preller did it without giving up any of his core pieces from 2014 -- most notably, starters Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross or Ian Kenneedy -- or the club's top three prospects is remarkable. But it also shows how much the Dodgers wanted to clear out Kemp's contract and that elite players with one year until free agency just aren't able to bring in a top pro sects (see the Jeff Samardzija trade). It also shows, however, that Kemp and Upton are overrated; big names, yes, but not superstar players at this point in their careers and took a first-year GM like Preller to make the gamble.
So my man @tedcahill tells me the #Padres have dealt nine of their top 21 prospects, according to @MLBPipeline, in the last few days.
— Corey Brock (@FollowThePadres) December 19, 2014
Which doesn't mean the Padres haven't traded any of their prospects. Remember, Preller made his mark with the Rangers as a talent evaluator. Time will tell if he traded away the right guys and kept the ones who can play.
Twitter thinks Matt Kemp is an old man. http://t.co/hFsu6dHbrA pic.twitter.com/9CWviLKpQa
— SB Nation MLB (@SBNationMLB) December 19, 2014
Ouch.