Lucas Duda is projected to earn $4.25 million in 2015.

First up, this detailed report from the Pace Law team on Lucas Duda's projected 2015 salary ...

Lucas Duda entered 2014 in a first-base platoon with Ike Davis. Duda ended the season entrenched at the position. While Davis failed to take advantage of his opportunity and was dealt to the Pittsburgh Pirates, Duda established himself as the Mets’ top power-hitting threat after David Wright turned in an injury-plagued campaign.

Duda led the team in homers, RBIs and OPS. He proved a threat every time he stepped into the batter’s box, finishing second in homers, tied for third in RBIs and fourth in OPS among NL first basemen. While not a Gold Glove-caliber defender, Duda only committed seven errors in 1,197 total chances and proved an adequate fielder. Coming off an astounding statistical season, Duda looks to cash in with a healthy raise from his 2014 salary of $1.6375 million.

The Case for the New York Mets

The Mets likely will argue that Duda is one-dimensional and relies too much on power. His .253 average places him seventh out of nine qualified NL first basemen and he strikes out at a 22.7 percent clip. Both numbers are troubling for the Mets, who are afraid of committing a large amount of money to what could be a Davis clone.

Duda’s 2014 average was his highest total since 2011 (.292), when he still was a part-time player. His career average sits just below, at .248. Further, the Mets will attempt to argue that Duda struggles mightily within the “friendly” confines of Citi Field. Batting only .227 at home compared to .275 on the road, his inability to hit for average contributed to the Mets sub-.500 home record. Duda also hit only .180 with two homers in 111 at-bats against left-handed pitching in 2014.

The Case for Lucas Duda

Duda has a lot going for him entering his second arbitration-eligible offseason. Not only did he lead the Mets in multiple power categories, but he also was a force among all NL first basemen. He posted career bests in nearly every major offensive category, most notably at-bats, runs, hits, doubles, homers and RBIs. Most importantly for his arbitration case, he solidified himself as an everyday starter for the Mets, appearing in a total of 153 games, including 136 starts at first base.

Duda will be able to argue that his production did not slip when given the opportunity to play every day. Rather, it improved across the board. Further, Duda proved to be an extremely clutch player throughout the year, batting .301 with 12 homers and an OPS of 1.100 with runners in scoring position. His rate stats only improved when there were two outs and RISP, hitting .318 with an OPS of 1.145. Duda saved his most impressive statistical season for his platform year and should see a considerable raise as a result.

Comparable Players

DUDA vs. MOSS and JONES

A statistical comparison for the platform seasons (year heading into second arbitration) and careers to that point of Lucas Duda, Brandon Moss and Garrett Jones.

Brandon Moss -- 2013 -- Salary: $4.1M -- Raise from previous year: $2.5M

With 30 homers, a .256 average and 87 RBIs, Brandon Moss represents a near-identical comparison to Duda’s platform season. Duda distinguishes himself with his elite ability to get on base despite a low batting average. However, Moss displays far greater slugging ability, posting a SLG 41 points above Duda. Duda also has an advantage in that he was an everyday player for a longer portion of his platform season, starting 23 more games. Based on their relative statistics, Duda should receive a raise that exceeds Moss’ $2.5 million.

Garrett Jones -- 2012 -- Salary: $4.5M -- Raise from previous year: $2.1M

Another power hitting first baseman, Garrett Jones’ platform and career statistics set the range that Duda should look to receive in 2015. While Duda arguably outperformed or matched Jones in all statistical categories during their platform seasons, Jones is superior over their respective careers. Therefore, Duda should be paid a salary that approaches, but does not surpass Jones’ $4.5 million.

Predicted Result

With more games started than both Moss and Jones, Duda is more valuable because he is an everyday player and no longer confined to a platoon at first base. This alone would make him more valuable than in previous years. In conjunction with his statistical prowess, he should see a considerable raise from his current $1.6375 million. With arguably better platform statistics than both Jones and Moss, Duda should cash in with a raise that is larger than both of his comps.

However, with lesser career numbers than Jones through their respective second-time arbitration-eligible seasons, Duda will likely come in with a salary lower than the $4.5 million received by Jones. Further, with seemingly identical stats to Moss, a $2.5 million raise seems to be the appropriate figure to gauge Duda.

Taking into consideration the 23 more games started, we predict Duda will receive a nominal raise over Moss and receive a total salary of $4.25 million for the 2015 season.