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Burning Questions: How good is Lagares?

AP Photo/John Minchillo

This is the kind of swing the Mets like to see from Juan Lagares.Juan Lagares had a really good season in 2014. You could argue he was the Mets' most valuable player -- or, at the very least, one of their top three.

Offense

Lagares’ progression as a hitter was a product of two things: increasing his line-drive rate from 19 percent to 22 percent and spraying the ball across the whole field, as noted in the chart on the right. His batting average on balls in play spiked a bit -- mostly on fly balls -- so a .281 average might be a little higher than he deserved, but it was still an improvement from his rookie season, when he hit .242.

Hits by Side of Field

Lagares also stole 13 bases, nine of which came in his last 18 games of the season. (The Mets were 9-1 when he recorded at least one steal.) This is important to remember when looking at Lagares moving forward. He can definitely expand his offensive value by running more.

The big area of improvement the Mets will be looking for from Lagares will be in his strike-zone judgment.

In each of his two seasons, Lagares has chased pitches at a rate well above the major league average. The bottom line: He swings at one-third of pitches out of the strike zone.

Defense

You could make the case that Lagares is the most impactful outfielder in the game.

Lagares had 28 Defensive Runs Saved in each of his first two seasons, handling most balls hit to the deepest parts of the ballpark without any issue and using his throwing arm to deter baserunners.

Lagares has garnered such a good reputation that opponents are now afraid to challenge him. Even Ben Revere, one of the fastest players in the majors, declined to try to score from second base on a base hit to deep center.

Lagares fielded 85 hits with a runner on base. The runner only took an extra base 33 times. The average center fielder would have allowed the runner to take the base 46 times.

“For anyone who underestimates the value of his defense, just ask his starting pitchers what they think,” said one major league scout. "Anyone who doesn’t think he’s terrific isn’t paying attention.”

So how good was his 2014?

Lagares became part of a debate about the validity of the Wins Above Replacement stat, since he had a better Wins Above Replacement total than Andrew McCutchen for most of the season.

Juan Lagares

Juan Lagares

#12 CF
New York Mets

2014 STATS

  • GM116
  • HR4

  • RBI47

  • R46

  • OBP.321

  • AVG.281

Lagares finished third among center fielders -- behind Mike Trout and McCutchen in the version of the stat espoused by Baseball-Reference (5.5 WAR) and tied with Denard Span for seventh in the version provided by Fangraphs (3.8 WAR).

I got into a spirited discussion on his ranking with two researchers at ESPN -- Jeff Gold from ESPN The Magazine and Paul Hembekides from Stats and Information. It concluded with me asking them to rank his season.

Jeff Gold: "Lagares is one of the most unique players in baseball. He doesn't hit for power, doesn't walk, doesn't steal that many bases (13), and yet he's one of the best players in the game. His defense is a game-changer.

"Lagares' WAR numbers are phenomenal, but the sample size of outstanding play (only 2014) is small, and he relies tremendously on defense, where evaluation is somewhat murky.

"After Trout and McCutchen, I'd go Carlos Gomez, Adam Jones, Yasiel Puig, Jacoby Ellsbury, and then Lagares. Not bad for $500,000."

Paul Hembekides: “Where does Juan Lagares rank among center fielders? Not in the top five [so not an All-Star], but still in the second tier of players above [or well above] league average.

"And in terms of all position players? I could name 50 I'd rather have than Juan Lagares, but I couldn't name 100.

"Lagares may be the best defensive player in baseball this season -- just don’t tell me he’s better than my boppers.”

The important point to remember from their analysis is that while the stat may have overrated Lagares a bit, the discussion is about whether Lagares rated outstanding or very good. There is no disputing he is a quality player right now.

And how good can he be?

The good thing for the Mets is there seems to be plenty of upside for Lagares, who will turn 26 this coming spring. We asked our scout to give us his take on Lagares’ outlook.

“He still has a ways to go. He continues to learn plate discipline. I think there’s more power there. He’s already a good baserunner. In the NL East, I like him over Denard Span, B.J. Upton, Ben Revere and Marcell Ozuna. He’s at the top of the division.

“I just hope he stays healthy long enough for us to see [the finished product].”