WASHINGTON – It’s hard to tell which has been more surprising to the Toronto Raptors: that they’re down 3-0 or that they’re down 3-0 to the Washington Wizards.

They’ve been politically correct, talked in code and attempted misdirection, but the bottom line is the Raptors can’t believe how much of a challenge their opponent has been in this series. They read the scouting reports, and they watch the film, but they have been overwhelmed by the Wizards -- especially their alleged role players.

John Wall and Bradley Beal have combined to shoot 38 percent through the three games, and Nene, a player who was at the top of the Raptors' list to control, has put up pedestrian averages of eight points and eight rebounds. Had these projections been supplied to Toronto before the start of the series, the Raptors probably would have thought they'd have a 2-1 lead or, worst case, be down 2-1, in the thick of it going into Game 4.

Instead, Paul Pierce has turned back the clock (to the last time he played the Raptors in the playoffs); Otto Porter has had a coming-out party; Marcin Gortat is shooting 70 percent; and, after never making a 3-pointer in 55 career playoff games, Drew Gooden has made four in the past two games including three in the first half on Friday.

“We’ve played extremely hard, but they’re just hitting some extremely tough shots,” said Raptors wing DeMar DeRozan.

“These guys are playing extremely well,” said Raptors guard Kyle Lowry. “Their guards are playing well. Their bigs are playing defense pretty well.”

“We’re not playing against chopped liver,” Raptors coach Dwane Casey said. "Everyone’s attention is on Pierce, but it’s Otto Porter. He’s made some big plays, winning plays. Rebounding and defending. He’s really improved. From when he played at the beginning of the year until now, he’s a different person. It’s unbelievable.”

Porter shot 36 percent and averaged 4.4 points in the month of March. He had an uptick in April when he got some extra minutes when the Wizards were resting Pierce to prepare for the playoffs. But his length on defense and ability to nail deep jumpers has stunned the Raptors.

He’s shooting 63 percent for the series and his versatility defensively has been the linchpin in the small lineups that have tortured Toronto because they open up space for the Wizards’ playmakers -- namely Wall, who is averaging 13.3 assists per game in the series -- to eviscerate the Raptors’ already shaky defense.

Pierce, meanwhile, is averaging 16 points and shooting 53 percent after he limped to the finish of the regular season, averaging 10 points on 41 percent shooting in 33 games after the All-Star break.

The Raptors, meanwhile, are seeing all their stars’ production fall off. Lowry is shooting less than 25 percent. Lou Williams has been a nonfactor, shooting 30 percent. DeRozan’s overall numbers look strong -– 22 points, seven rebounds and six assists a game -- but they don’t show how choppy his play has been. These three were the driving force of the Raptors’ offense all season.

“We’ve put together good quarters, they’ve put [together] good games,” Williams said. “It shows. It’s 0-3.”

As the Raptors scramble to assemble some belief they can somehow turn things around, they’re clinging to the law of averages turning in their favor in Game 4. From Casey on down, the team insists the losses haven’t been a matter of effort and, therefore, the relative talent balance between the teams should show up at some point.

Casey has once again hinted at lineup changes, this time against the Wizards' small lineups. It’s possible he could use James Johnson, who has barely played in the series, more for defense. The coach already changed the starting lineup, putting Amir Johnson in for Game 3.

But in large part, the numb Raptors are falling into wishful thinking.

“Everything that could go bad for us has gone bad for us these last three games,” DeRozan said. “The luck has to turn at some point.”