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Rodgers solidifies spot as top prep hitter

Lake Mary (Florida) High School shortstop Brendan Rodgers was the biggest star on the showcase circuit last summer, playing outstanding defense while showing a strong hit tool against the best prep arms in the country. I'd heard that Rodgers appeared to be pressing early this spring, but on Wednesday night he looked every bit like the best prep position player in this draft class.

Rodgers has a simple right-handed swing that produces hard contact, both line-drive and power, thanks to strong hands and moderate hip rotation, and he projects to be a plus hitter with at least average home-run power down the road. In the field he has everything you'd want to see in a shortstop except speed, with soft hands, great footwork, and a 65 or 70 arm. He's a below-average runner, which is often used as a proxy for a shortstop's potential range, but I have never seen him unable to get to a ball that an above-average major league defender would field.

The two main criticisms of Rodgers are that lack of foot speed, which I don't believe is strictly necessary for someone to be a good defensive shortstop -- Troy Tulowitzki seems have to done all right for himself -- and that Rodgers will turn 19 shortly after the draft, making him one of the oldest prep prospects in the class. The former issue doesn't bother me much, and the latter one would matter more if this class were otherwise flush with quality high school bats. Rodgers is clearly the cream of that crop, and I think a Tulowitzki Lite projection is reasonable, which makes him the top prospect in the draft right now.

• Olympia (Orlando) High School lefty Juan Hillman, former teammate of Twins prospect Nick Gordon, threw a five-inning stint in the rain on Thursday morning and showed why he's one of my favorite arms in the class despite the lack of plus velocity. Hillman was 87-92 mph with some life on the pitch, but he hides the ball so well in his delivery that hitters seemed to start their swings after the ball had hit the glove -- I counted seven over three innings once I started keeping track. His curveball was slow at 73-75 mph but has a late downward break, and while he worked mostly with the fastball, he was willing to drop the curveball in to lefties as a change of pace. He threw one changeup or split-change at 81 mph with a hard tumble.

Hillman's delivery is very easy and simple, with little effort in his arm action, and that deception is outstanding. Hitters just don't see the ball coming out of his hand, and as he fills out -- there's some projection here to end up in the 90-94 mph range -- his fastball should remain effective even as he's facing better hitters. Pitchers like Hillman don't often go in the first round due to the lack of present stuff, but I'd be comfortable taking him in the No. 20 to No. 40 range.