I've liked much of what the Atlanta Braves have done this autumn, starting with replacing most of their front office and continuing with the trade of Jason Heyward, but the Nick Markakis contract doesn't make much sense in any context. He'd be a great one- or even two-year flier for someone willing to bet on a change of scenery (and hitting coaches) helping him, but giving him a four-year, $45 million deal that runs through his age-34 season doesn't fit any of what the club appeared to be trying to do.

Markakis peaked at age 24, and has since devolved into a high-contact singles hitter who plays adequate right-field defense with a great arm. (He was a very good pitching prospect back at Young Harris College, with more teams looking at him as a pitcher in the 2003 draft than as a hitter.) The Orioles never found the missing link with Markakis to regain that lost power, as he has become exceedingly short to the ball, hitting it on the ground too often and driving it to the gaps too infrequently.

He has lost more than 25 extra-base hits a year from his first two full seasons in the majors and only a major change in approach -- both mental and mechanical -- will get it back. It could happen, but I certainly wouldn't put real money on it, and this contract seems to price in some kind of offensive bounce back.