Our friends at FiveThirtyEight debuted NBA player projection tool CARMELO on Friday and it quickly won over Boston Celtics fans by projecting a 48-win season.
We offered some highlights in our FiveThirtyEight Celtics preview, but here's a snapshot of how CARMELO projects each of Boston's 16 current players (sorted by wins above replacement projection):
Projected WAR: 6.0
Category: Future All-Star
Notable comp: James Harden
Analysis: JAMES HARDEN (!!!) Smart's WAR is projected to climb into the 7s before his rookie deal expires.
Projected WAR: 4.5
Category: Key role player
Notable comp: Dennis Rodman
Analysis: Johnson, typically an advanced stats darling, is projected to see his WAR rebound a bit but the long-term outlook is less than encouraging. That said, a 1990 Rodman comparison ain’t too shabby when you consider Rodman was an All-Star that year, won Defensive Player of the Year, and won a championship with the Pistons.
Projected WAR: 4.1
Category: Up-and-comer
Notable comp: Nikola Vucevic
Analysis: No. 2 comp is to a player that put up 19.3 points and 10.9 rebounds per game last season. "Yes please!” screams every Celtics fans before fainting.
Projected WAR: 4.0
Category: Good starter
Notable comp: Lou Williams
Analysis: CARMELO doesn't think Thomas will ever get back to that 6.3 WAR from 2014 and Thomas has every right to scoff at that (and surely believes he belongs in the future All-Star category). CARMELO doesn't soften the blow by comparing Thomas to the guy who edged him for Sixth Man of the Year last season.
Projected WAR: 3.8
Category: Up-and-comer
Notable comp: Rick Robey
Analysis: Twitter user @DJahnz was first to joke, "When can we trade KO for the next Dennis Johnson?"
Projected WAR: 1.9
Category: Average starter
Notable comp: Marcus Thornton (not the one currently in Australia)
Analysis: CARMELO predicts a small climb for Bradley and early preseason returns suggest the same.
Projected WAR: 1.9
Category: Rotation player
Notable comp: Jud Buechler
Analysis: Even computers struggle to quantify Crowder's value.
Projected WAR: 1.9
Category: Rotation player
Notable comp: Dan Roundfield
Analysis: Dr. Rounds was a three-time All-Star and rebound magnet, though CARMELO compared him to 1986 Roundfield, who was on his last legs.
Projected WAR: 1.7
Category: Rotation player
Notable comp: Robin Lopez
Analysis: Zeller's top comp is to a player that got $54 million over four years this summer. And Boston's starting center for the first two preseason games is extension eligible through the end of the month.
Projected WAR: 1.4
Category: Rotation player
Notable comp: Matt Bonner
Analysis: Swedish Matt Bonner isn’t the worst comp in the world, but CARMELO predicts a sizable dropoff from last year's climb to a WAR of 2.5.
Evan Turner
Projected WAR: 0.3
Category: Scrub
Notable comp: Billy Owens
Analysis: Ouch, CARMELO, that “scrub” suggestion is harsh.
Projected WAR: -0.1
Category: OK prospect
Notable comp: Jordan Crawford
Analysis: Celtics fans hope he’s more Tony Allen than Joseph Forte -- two of the five former Boston players in his 10 CARMELO comps.
R.J. Hunter
Projected WAR: -0.2
Category: Marginal prospect
Notable comp: Kevin Martin
Analysis: Martin might be the only encouraging comp, but Hunter's stats don't translate well from college.
Projected WAR: -0.2
Category: Marginal prospect
Notable comp: Brandon Bass
Analysis: So the Celtics knew what they were doing when they let that other LSU product walk this summer after drafting Mickey.
Projected WAR: -0.3
Category: Up-and-comer
Notable comp: Lou Williams
Analysis: CARMELO is still nicer to Young than most Celtics fans these days.
Perry Jones III
Projected WAR: -0.4
Category: Project
Notable comp: Harry Davis
Analysis: If CARMELO was GM, his decision on who gets cut from the final roster would be made.