There are situations where it makes sense to bet against the percentages. Determining the right time and place to speculate on high-upside players is only half the battle. The other consideration, of course, is: who should I target?
One class of player that draws our focus is the young player. Scooping up a Hanley Ramirez (SS, FLA) or Jonathan Papelbon (P, BOS) late in your draft can have a massive impact on your season. It's not always clear who the breakout kids will be each year, as it's not always the ones who have the clearest opportunity entering the season, or those who flashed the most impressive skills in the minors.
We can speculate as to who this year's biggest impact rookies and young players may be, digging a bit beyond the obvious rookies to the next tier. This group may generally be reserve round picks; few are worth more than an end-game buck. But the payoffs could be considerably larger.