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Playoff breakdown: What we think will happen

It was an atypical Championship Saturday, as chalk held serve and many of the College Football Playoff contenders won convincingly.

The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal the four-team field for the inaugural playoff at 12:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Three teams -- No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Oregon and No. 4 Florida State -- seem to be locks to receive one of the four spots. The Seminoles might move up to No. 3 or they could remain at No. 4 after another close victory, 37-35, over No. 11 Georgia Tech in Saturday night’s ACC championship game in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Deciding on the fourth team figures to be a raging debate until the field is announced. Three teams -- No. 3 TCU, No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Baylor -- are in contention, and each of them could make a credible argument as to why it is most deserving.

It might be hard to see the Horned Frogs falling out of the top 4 after blasting overmatched Iowa State 55-3 in Saturday’s regular-season finale in the Big 12, but it wasn’t even the most impressive performance of the day.

Ohio State, which seemed to be left for dead after losing to Virginia Tech 35-21 at home in Week 2, suddenly seems very much alive in the playoff hunt after routing No. 13 Wisconsin 59-0 in Saturday night’s Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis. The Buckeyes have won 11 games in a row and keep winning despite having lost two star quarterbacks this season.

And don’t forget about Baylor, which beat the Horned Frogs 61-58 during the regular season and clinched a share of the Big 12 title (with TCU) by defeating No. 9 Kansas State 38-27 at home on Saturday night.

For now, we’ll go with the Buckeyes as the fourth team and make them the No. 4 seed, behind No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Florida State. Based on those seeds, the playoff bracket would look like this:

If Baylor and TCU aren’t selected for the playoff, they’ll both undoubtedly receive invitations to one of the New Year’s Six bowl games. The same goes for Ohio State. While that might hardly seem like a consolation for not getting a chance to play for a national championship, it would be a just reward for outstanding seasons. Either the Bears or Horned Frogs figure to play in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic in Arlington, Texas, on New Year’s Day, while the other might be headed to the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta on New Year’s Eve.

After putting up an admirable fight against FSU in the ACC championship game, Georgia Tech is probably headed to the Capital One Orange Bowl, where the ACC’s No. 2 team is guaranteed a spot. The Yellow Jackets would probably play No. 8 Michigan State, which was the highest-ranked team from the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame.

No. 22 Boise State also probably locked up a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game by defeating Fresno State 28-14 in Saturday night’s Mountain West Conference championship game. The Broncos were the highest-ranked team from the Group of 5 conferences in last week’s rankings, and it’s unlikely that will change when the committee’s final ballot is unveiled on Sunday.

No. 7 Arizona and No. 12 Ole Miss also might be in position to play in New Year’s Six bowl games, but they’ll be holding their breath until the matchups are announced on Sunday. The Wildcats didn’t put up much of a fight in a 51-13 loss to Oregon in Friday night’s Pac-12 championship game, but they still seem to be the likely No. 2 team from the Pac-12, which might be enough to earn a spot in a marquee bowl game.

Meanwhile, the Rebels might benefit from Wisconsin’s ugly shutout loss in the Big Ten title game. It was the Badgers’ worst loss since 1979 and their first shutout defeat since 1997. It’s hard to imagine Wisconsin being invited to a New Year’s Six bowl game after such a forgettable performance on such a big stage.

The Rebels figure to move up a couple of spots in the rankings, and their 31-17 victory over Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl and earlier 23-17 upset of Alabama might be enough to push them into a New Year’s Six bowl game.

Here’s what New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day could look like, based on this weekend’s results (using current selection committee rankings):

Dec. 31

12:30 p.m. ET -- Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 10 Mississippi State vs. No. 3 TCU

4 p.m. ET -- VIZIO Fiesta Bowl: No. 7 Arizona vs. No. 22 Boise State

8 p.m. ET -- Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 11 Georgia Tech vs. No. 8 Michigan State

Jan. 1

12:30 p.m. ET -- Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 12 Ole Miss vs. No. 6 Baylor

5 p.m. ET -- Rose Bowl Game Presented By Northwestern Mutual: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 4 Florida State

8:30 p.m. ET -- Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 5 Ohio State