Flag-planted players for 2012
I've been doing this annual "Flag-Planted Players" column for ESPN for a while now. In fact, it feels like it's been long enough that as we scroll back through the years, we should see references to ancient dance crazes ("
like Los del Rio doing the Macarena, Steve Young should continue boogying through opposing defenses
") and increasingly outdated hairstyles in my author photo.
Nevertheless, here we are again: My annual impersonation of a value-seeking missile. Because I write all of ESPN's player profiles and devise our initial rankings (which are subsequently mulled over and changed by our fantasy sports crew), I can sometimes be guilty of taking too broad a view of the fantasy football field. So when someone asks me for a receiver I really like this year, I might rattle off 20 names. If an interviewer wants a couple of sleepers, I've got a bushel's worth. But that's too easy.
That's why this column initially developed, as a way to cut through vague feelings about a lot of players, and focus on strong feelings about a few players. My task here is to isolate 10 guys I'm most excited about for 2012. Let's be clear: I'm not saying these will be the best players at their respective positions, nor am I saying that you should plan on taking any of them at the tippety-top of your draft. My contention is merely that given the risk each of these men embody (as manifested by the spot where you'll have to select them in your fantasy draft), the rewards are enticing.
So these aren't "sleepers" in the traditional sense. They aren't merely "high-upside" or "safe" plays. And in most cases, they haven't already been fantasy stars in previous seasons. I'm projecting and extrapolating here, looking for value sometimes at the expense of certainty, which means I will absolutely, positively not bat 1.000 with this list. However, in the past this column has been fortunate enough to forecast breakout years for Jamaal Charles, Mike Wallace and Matthew Stafford, among others. And sometimes even when I've missed on a particular player, I've at least alerted you to a potentially valuable situation, as I did last year in assessing the Pittsburgh Steelers WR corps and deciding Emmanuel Sanders was a good late-round pick (the point was valid, but Antonio Brown was the correct player).
Anyway, I can promise that several of the players listed below will wind up on my various fantasy teams. So here goes nothing. Here are my flag-planted players for 2012 in alphabetical order. After each player, I give out a rating of flags to signify how strongly I feel about him, with five being the strongest:
Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings: In '11, Harvin finished eighth in fantasy points among WRs, squarely between the redoubtable fantasy tandem of Roddy White and Vincent Jackson, yet in our group receiving ranks for this season, he comes in 20th. I'm at a loss to explain why, because I think the actuarial tables are now actually more in Harvin's favor. Whatever you believe about Adrian Peterson's prospects, it's hard to proclaim they're better than last year's. Christian Ponder doesn't have to worry about Donovan McNabb being ahead of him on the depth chart, presumptive No. 2 wideout Jerome Simpson will begin the year suspended for three games and the Vikings have made noises about having Harvin on the field for more than the 58 percent of their offensive snaps they used him last season. The great thing about owning Harvin is that you'll also get credit for his rushing skills (he had a career-high 52 carries for 345 yards and three scores in '11) and his kickoff-return TDs (he's got at least one in each of his three pro seasons). I'm sympathetic to the argument that Harvin should be inside our top 10 WRs, and he's barely in our top 20? He showed last season that he doesn't need a 1,000-yard receiving campaign to be deadly in fantasy. If you can finagle him to be your No. 2 fantasy wideout, you'll be in great shape. And don't buy the notion that he's a fragile player: Despite well-publicized migraine troubles, Harvin has missed three games in three seasons. Rating: 4.5 flags (out of 5).
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Oakland Raiders: DHB had an objectively weird season in '11, but that doesn't obscure the fact he finally started to "get it" on the field. (He also was arrested for DUI this winter, so whether he "gets it" off the field is an open question.) His route-running and his hands -- previously among the league's worst -- improved, especially late in the season. It's fair to question how much Carson Palmer likes throwing to Heyward-Bey; DHB's serious midseason downturn coincided with Palmer arriving in Oakland, and Heyward-Bey really only picked it up again late after Denarius Moore missed time. Nevertheless, DHB's December was one to behold: 29 catches, 456 yards and three TDs. I do like Moore a bit more than DHB, but I view each guy as a top-35 fantasy WR this season, and whereas Moore's average draft position (ADP) is currently 95, Heyward-Bey's is 131. Both of these Raiders receivers are burners, but Moore gets sent down the field more (in '11 his average yards at the catch was 14.3, fourth highest among qualifying receivers, while DHB's was 10.7, putting him at 27th). So while I think Moore is a better bet to lead this WR corps in fantasy points, you may actually get better week-to-week consistency out of DHB. I think he makes a nice bench stash in any size league. Rating: 2.5 flags (out of 5).
Peyton Hillis, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Along with Michael Vick, Hillis was a poster child for my All-Overrated team heading into '11; there was no way either guy could exceed the marvels they achieved in '10, and fantasy drafters who took them at the peak of their values were asking for trouble. But the pendulum does swing. Now Vick's ADP is a more reasonable 34, a price at which I think he's a bargain (with obvious health caveats), and Hillis has fallen off the map, all the way down to No. 89. (On average, he was the No. 26 player taken in '11.) Now, that's understandable. He toils for the Chiefs, who have a superstar named Jamaal Charles in their backfield. But three things factor in Hillis' favor for '12. First, J-Mail is coming off a torn ACL. He's looked fine so far, but history teaches us that RBs rarely recoup all their abilities in the first year after ACL surgery. Second, Charles' best season came in '10, when he had 230 carries to Thomas Jones' 245. Third, the Chiefs have quietly assembled what could be a run-mashing offensive line. Right tackle Eric Winston was a key in Arian Foster's emergence in Houston, Jon Asamoah was terrific last year at left guard and new center Rodney Hudson is promising; in addition, KC should have nice line depth, having drafted highly-regarded Jeff Allen (a collegiate tackle converting to guard) in the second round of April's draft and project tackle Donald Stephenson in the third round. The Chiefs...
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