HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE, Ark. -- A former scout for the St.
Louis Cardinals, now living in Hot Springs Village, says Albert
Pujols is a prime example of the difficulty of predicting who will
make it in the big leagues and who won't.
Greatness is expected from basketball and football players
selected in the first round from the time they sign a contract.
Baseball sets a high standard as well, but the variables are such
that it's not uncommon to see high draft choices flop and low-round
selections flourish.
Exhibit A is Pujols, whose 13th-round selection in 1999 has had
people scratching their heads since he came to the big leagues in
2001. The right-handed first baseman has batted .300 every year,
hit 30 or more home runs with at least 100 RBIs and 100 runs scored,
and was named 2005 National League Most Valuable Player.
And Dave Karaff of Hot Springs Village says even he didn't see
it coming, though he had scouted Pujols.
"I thought he had a chance to be a good player and with hard
work, he could be really good, but not what he's done so far,"
Karaff said.
Karaff said that, when the Cardinals took Pujols out of Maple
Woods College in Kansas City, Mo., as the 402nd overall selection,
they didn't think he would be as good as the players they drafted
in the first five rounds.
Once drafted, Pujols quickly jumped from Class A Peoria, Ill.,
to another A team in Potomac, Md., before being promoted to AAA
Memphis in 2000 and making the major-league roster in 2001.
"I was unable to follow him once we signed him because he went
into player development," Karaff said. "I saw him play in Peoria
and had some people say he looked like he had a chance."
While Pujols has turned into one of baseball's best players, the
man who discovered him no longer works for the Cardinals, who
dismissed Karaff in 2003 in a scouting-department shakeup.
"I was told I was being let go because of cutbacks," said
Karaff, who spent 15 years as a scout for the Seattle Mariners and
the Cardinals. "You can read between the lines. The game has
changed a lot when it comes to scouting."
Karaff said baseball teams are allowing non-baseball people to
control decisions and they're being run like any other corporate
business.
"That's not totally bad, and they want to use a lot of
statistics, but that's another tool when it comes to evaluating
players, and money has gotten in the way," Karaff said. "To me,
when it comes to evaluating players, you have to see if they have
the tools and have a gut feeling."
Karaff said scouting has changed from the standpoint that
amateur players participate in more showcase events and on
traveling teams.
While getting let go by the Cardinals was tough, Karaff was
stung by comments by Pujols in USA Today and the Kansas City Star
after Karaff's views on Pujols became known. Pujols told USA Today:
"How can you draft a guy and say you don't know if he's going to
make the big leagues? All of a sudden, the next year (I'm) in the
big leagues and he wants to take the credit."
Pujols told the Kansas City Star: "He said I wasn't going to
make the big leagues. That's why he got fired."
Karaff said, "That's water under the bridge. Albert's not a bad
person. He needs to stop and think sometimes."
Asked what he misses about scouting, Karaff said, "Everything.
I enjoyed it thoroughly and enjoyed spending the time on the road
and meeting people.
"There are so many variables that take place and so much luck
involved in scouting. You look at a guy like Mike Piazza, if it
wasn't for Tommy Lasorda, he wouldn't be in the big leagues.
"You look at somebody like J.D. Drew, and I have a lot of
respect for some of the Cardinals scouts who thought he would be
terrific and was one of the best college hitters they saw, but for
whatever reason, he has not lived up to expectations."