Wind and bunkers among biggest British variables

Is there any reason on the face of the Earth and in the heart and soul of golf's auld grey toon not to install Tiger Woods as the prohibitive favorite at St. Andrews?

Woods is the Masters champion and was second in the U.S. Open. He remains the biggest player in golf's biggest moments. Even if Woods doesn't win, the idea he would somehow not be in contention at St. Andrews, where he won in 2000, seems incomprehensible. So if it is to be someone other than Woods, that someone likely will have to go eyeball-to-eyeball with Tiger, and not many have proven up to that task.

Woods won the British Open by 8 shots the last time it was at St. Andrews, famously avoiding each and every one of the Old Course's 12 million bunkers. The victory filled out Woods' first complete set of Grand Slam collectibles. A second Open title would give him two laps around the impregnable professional quadrilateral in his pursuit of Jack Nicklaus' three-bagger and put him a lap ahead of Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan and Gary Player, the only other guys on the racetrack. The last person to win back-to-back at the Old Course was Nicklaus himself, and we all know Woods has the Golden Bear's major records stitched into his underwear. While Woods' overall results in the British Open haven't been astonishing -- since nobody thinks having won just one is astonishing for him -- he has finished in the top 10 the last two years while he was tinkering with his game. In short, history isn't much comfort to the pack.

But let's get to the heart of the matter: What will determine success at the Old Course?

In July, the prevailing wind comes out of the quarry next to the airfield -- from the southwest -- roughly 75 percent of the time. That means holes one through seven and the 10th and 11th generally play into it. Nos. 8 and 9 and the 12th through the 18th generally play downwind. In addition, the tides affect the severity of the wind. An incoming tide is generally on an easy breeze, it goes dead calm as it turns and picks up intensity as the tide goes out. However, this notion of "generally" is where it all comes a cropper. If the weather turns a bit freakish, well, the wind can be the exact opposite, coming out of the northeast or north, so you can flip which holes play with or into it. And that can happen quickly. Says Peter Dawson, chief executive of the Royal and Ancient, "There is a prevailing wind, but it never comes from there." In the unluckiest of scenarios, it is possible for someone to go out into the wind, have it turn the same time they do and come home into the wind. That's considered a generally bad day. "St. Andrews is St. Andrews, man," says Ernie Els. "It can be very nice and it can be a beast."

The wind could be a nonfactor, like it was when Woods won in 2000 with a 19-under-par 269 on fairways that were faster than the greens, or it can blow 50 mph, like it did on the sunny Sunday in 1995 when John Daly beat Costantino Rocca in a playoff after they tied at 6-under-par 282. "I'll never forget on No. 8, the par 3," Daly says. "It was coming out of the right, and I was aiming probably 70 yards right of the green so it wouldn't go left."

And let's not even think about a cold, Scottish harr and a bit of sideways rain. The wind and the weather can, and sometimes do (see: Muirfield '02), take a particular section of the draw right out of the tournament like carving a slice of pie from the whole. In fact, it is less likely for the conditions to be the same for everyone than for someone to get a bad break. In its own way, that is part of the test. If the vagaries of the weather saddle you with the unlucky end of the draw, you have to find a way through it. Sometimes, it can be so horrible there simply isn't one.

At St. Andrews, the wind knocks everything into a cocked hat.

The Old Course actually has 112 bunkers, some of which make absolutely no sense whatsoever until the wind turns around and you find yourself chest-high in one you didn't even know existed. There are some bunkers, however, that simply must be avoided, and prime among those is the Road Hole Bunker beside the 17th green. Having said that, Road Hole has been trimmed down a bit and is not quite as daunting vertically. However, if you're close to the face, particularly with the championship on the line, all is usually lost.

The new back tee on the second hole (one of five newcomers) has made the Cheape's Bunker a 293-yard carry. If it is into the prevailing wind, even the longest drivers will have to be more careful. "What we're trying to do is bring back some of the decision making that was required of golfers in years gone by -- negotiating hazards rather than flying over them," Dawson says. The second also will present more rough than usual on the right. The Strath Bunker fronting the 11th is a definite no, as is the Hill Bunker to the green's left. Hill is the bunker that sent Bobby Jones packing in 1921. "In general play," head greenkeeper Euan Grant says, "we see a lot of people making a fool of themselves in Strath, more so than Road Hole."

The 14th hole has been lengthened with the hopes of bringing "The Beardies" back into play. Even so, they are a 280-yard carry, and if the hole is downwind, the biggest hitters will still fly them with impunity. If that doesn't happen, however, the Hell Bunker comes back into play, too, and Nicklaus took 4 shots to get out of there in '95.

"The bunkers are out of the way, to be honest," Colin Montgomerie says. "You shouldn't be in them. I can see someone going around there without getting in any bunkers again. There's plenty of room out there."

What do they say about best-laid plans?

This all runs together. The ninth and 10th are definitely drivable. The 12th can still be reached. The third and the 18th are possibilities, depending on the wind. The third, 10th and 12th share parts of three of St. Andrews' seven double greens. The fifth and 14th, the two par 5s, can be reached and also play toward double greens. (By the way, if you want to keep St. Andrews' double greens straight, remember that they always add up to 18 -- second and 16th, third and 15th, fourth and 14th, fifth and 13th, sixth and 12th, seventh and 11th, eighth and 10th.) Even though the 14th has been lengthened to 618 yards, the longest hole ever in the Open Championship, it will "generally" play downwind. The big hitters still will reach it. However, getting on these greens is one thing, the length of the putt quite another. It will not be unusual to see 100-foot putts, and what does it benefit a man to reach a par 4 in one if he three-jacks it?

Also, the speed of St. Andrews' greens will be slower than many of the players, particularly the ones who play mostly in the United States, are accustomed to -- 10.5 on the Stimpmeter. This is determined by the 11th green, the one closest to the estuary and the most exposed to the wind. If it gets too fast, the ball won't stay still and play would be halted. "It's actually when they address the ball," Grant says. "I was shown this by a European tour official last year. When you put your putter behind the ball, it creates a vortex over the club and it moves the ball. It's quite fascinating to watch." On the relatively slow greens, a bold stroke will be less penalized than at, say, Augusta National or Pinehurst No. 2. This may help explain why Tom Watson charged his way to five of these things.

So where does that leave us? In accordance with Rule 298-1a (you must average at least 298 off the tee), the winner at St. Andrews will be a bomber. With the exception of Nick Faldo, who was the master clinician of his day, the last handful of champions at the Old Course have been among the longest drivers of their time -- Nicklaus (twice), Seve Ballesteros, Daly and Woods. The usual suspects who make the 298 cut are Woods, Kenny Perry, Els, Davis Love III, Daly, Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Angel Cabrera and Padraig Harrington. Just out of reach are Lee Westwood and Paul Casey who, in any event, hasn't done much since he insulted America. Unfortunately, you also leave behind the likes of Jim Furyk, Justin Leonard and David Toms, none of whom wears the mantel of Faldo just yet. Losing Westwood is a bit disturbing because he seems to be playing quite nicely at the moment, but the line has to be drawn somewhere.

And what about Michael Campbell and Retief Goosen? With all due respect to New Zealand's newest national hero, the players who have held the U.S. and British open titles simultaneously are Bobby Jones, Sarazen, Hogan, Lee Trevino, Watson and Woods. Anyone see Campbell fitting into that list? As for Goosen, his resilience in coming back from a missed putt on the 72nd hole at Southern Hills CC in the 2001 U.S. Open was admirable, but if he was to bounce back as quickly from Pinehurst, it would be a miracle. Having said that, if your idea of a bad day on the golf course is getting struck by lightning, an 81 doesn't seem so awful.

Notwithstanding his long eagle putt to win at Westchester CC (excellent use of lag theory), Harrington is not long enough. His driving-distance rank in Europe dwarfs his truer U.S. figures. Besides, he has yet to crack the top 50 in a major this year and his British Open record is no better than average, though the investor class is well aware that past performance does not guarantee future results. Love has a decent British Open résumé and is coming off a strong showing at the U.S. Open after a disappointing first round, but how will his injured neck travel? In 16 British Opens, Singh has just two top-10s and Perry has only played in three British Opens total. Scratch them. Cabrera won the BMW Championship but has a poor British Open record. He wasn't in the field last year and missed the cut the last time it was at St. Andrews. Garcia is a streaky putter, and if he's on, could be a factor but not a predictable one going in. Mickelson would seem to be a natural pick, but his record in the British is the worst among all the majors. With his length and touch, Daly is a sleeping giant, but he comes with a warning label: victory in '95, but a missed cut in 2000.

In the grasping-for-straws division, the short game that propped up Woods all last year let him down in the clutch in the U.S. Open. It was Woods' chipping and putting that blinked on the 70th and 71st holes. This leaves the championship to the man who has finished in the top three in four of the last five years and was runner-up at St. Andrews in 2000.

Let's call it Els, on a hunch. Maybe he'll find what he's been missing out there on the Old Course. Besides, who's more overdue for a bit of luck than him?

Jim Moriarty is a contributing writer for Golf World magazine