Editor's Note: ESPN analyst Tom Candiotti writes a weekly scouting report. Here is the former knuckleballer's book on Arizona Diamondbacks ace Randy Johnson as he prepares to face the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday.
Strengths
If you were a baseball scout and didn't know how old Johnson is or even how many years he has pitched in the major leagues, you would call your boss and just rave about his velocity, his stuff, his size, and his makeup. You would think that you made the find of a lifetime.
It is amazing to see Johnson getting better and better with each year. There comes a point -- usually not for long, though -- in every player's career when his ability and experience seem to come together before his skills start to erode. Many experts call it entering "the prime years." Johnson's stuff has not eroded, and combined with his wealth of experience, he has become an incredible force on the mound.
Defining Johnson's strengths is pretty easy. He has overpowering stuff made up of basically two pitches -- his fastball and slider. I've seen him dabble with a split-finger and also throw a change, but he attacks with his fastball and slider. He will also throw a two-seam fastball when he wants to get a ground ball, but mostly he will try to overpower hitters with his four-seamer.
His slider is deadly. It reminds me of the one that Steve Carlton used to throw when he was the dominant left-handed pitcher in baseball. Johnson can successfully turn it up a notch when he really needs to make a pitch or get a strikeout.
As his career has progressed, so has his control. Early in his career Johnson had terrible control problems, but not any more. He has complete command of the strike zone, and his location is very good. He could still be effective when his location is not good because his stuff is so overpowering.
Johnson's height gives him a distinct advantage over all other pitchers. At 6-foot-10, he is about a foot closer to the plate when
he releases the ball. That doesn't sound like much, but it is extremely tough on a hitter when this tall, lanky pitcher looks like he is right on top of you when he releases the ball.
Speaking of release points, Johnson's release is at about a three-quarters angle. Given the extra length of his pitching arm, a hitter sees the ball coming from out of right-center field or from where the second baseman normally plays. If you are a left-handed hitter, "Fuhgedaboutit!"
Johnson now sees the big picture as well. He is no longer pitching for numbers or awards. He is pitching for championships. His work ethic and his preparation are unmatched. His goal is to lead his club to the World Series again.
Weaknesses
Does Johnson have any weaknesses? Not really. The only time I ever see him struggle is at the start of a game when he is getting acclimated to the mound, the umpire, and his own adrenaline. Also, when his pitch count is high, his mechanics start to weaken.
Best approach
The best way for a team like the Orioles to approach Johnson is to take a lot of pitches, work the count, and try to get him to throw a lot of pitches. Maybe then the Orioles can get to the Arizona bullpen.
Overall
The Orioles, like every other club, will have a tough chore scoring any runs against Johnson. They don't have a hitter who will work the pitcher into a base on balls. Leadoff hitter Melvin Mora has been the best at drawing a walk, but he only has a .350 on-base percentage.
For the Orioles to have a chance against Johnson, they will need to get his pitch count up quickly. They can't be making one- or two-pitch outs. If they can raise Johnson's volume of pitches, the Orioles might be able to get into the D'Backs 'pen. The Orioles are only 10th in the American League in runs scored, so they will need a great pitching performance from their starter, team ace Rodrigo Lopez (6-2, 2.45 ERA).
Otherwise, their best chance is for Johnson to have a sore back when he wakes up in the morning.
ESPN baseball analyst Tom Candiotti won 151 games pitching in 16 major-league seasons.