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One of the most amazing stats from last year, in a season filled with them, was buried in the Chicago Cubs team stats. While Sammy Sosa had another magnificent season, try and guess who was second on the team in RBI, an astounding 96 behind Sammy? We dare you. It's pretty sad.
That means that 52 players had more RBI than the difference between Sammy and the No. 2 Cub. Think about that. So basically what we're saying is that the Cubs had absolutely no protection in the lineup for Mr. Sosa, either in front or especially behind him. He knocked in 160 runs, a startling total considering only one player on the team other than himself scored as many as 77 runs. Imagine if Sosa actually had someone else in the lineup.
(Trivia answer: Ricky Gutierrez and Matt Stairs were second and third on the Cubbies in RBI, with a combined 127. Nine players in the majors had that many by themselves. That's pathetic. And 2000 was really no different.)
In search of the franchise's first World Series since Abe Lincoln roamed the earth, the Cubs went out and got some big bats to help Sosa and make him more formidable. But if nobody was pitching to him last year, and he put up those numbers, which all in all were pretty impressive even with Barry Bonds walking all over the place and breaking the home run record, having Moises Alou and Fred McGriff could make things better.
Hey, maybe Sosa breaks Bonds' home run record. Wouldn't that be ironic with the way these babies are carrying on this spring?
Breaking 73 homers is a bold statement for sure, but look at the facts. Sosa is more a free swinger than Bonds, thus the higher strikeout total and relatively skimpy 116 walks, but now you have to pitch to him even more. McGriff ain't young, and Alou ain't always healthy, but these guys can hack. McGriff had nearly an RBI a game while with Chicago last year, and Alou was outstanding in Houston. That's serious protection and arguably the top threesome or middle of the order in the game.
We could add to Sosa's smile by saying the top of the order could be better, but it's not likely. Last year after Eric Young hitting leadoff, a flurry of different Cubs hit second, directly in front of Sammy. Bill Mueller and Ricky Gutierrez were the main guys, and they did get on base (Gutierrez had a .374 on-base in the No. 2 hole, but only had 230 at-bats there; Mueller's on base was .387 there) but weren't productive. This year looks to be no different.
So what do we expect for this year? Well, here's a breakdown of the Cubbies hitters in the fantasy world. We don't know whether this team can win 95 games and make the playoffs, whether the Diamondbacks, Cards or Braves have anything to worry about or whether the long-tortured fans of the Windy City will have something to cheer about come October. But we do know that as a fantasy team, the Cubs are improved. Here's their offense broken down.
Gotta love 'em: Start with Sosa. There have been projections on what kind of season he'll have in magazines and on the Internet, and to be blunt, they seem low. If he hit 64 last year, with protection from Rondell White, Stairs and -- gasp -- Ron Coomer, why wouldn't he do it again? I paid an NL-high $40 for him in LABR, and he's worth it. Yeah, he didn't have the time to steal a lousy base, which makes some people think that Bobby Abreu and Vladimir Guererro are more valuable, but Sosa brings much bigger power numbers. His RBI total is astounding and he hits .330.
McGriff and Alou are also great buys this year. McGriff has been overlooked for the last decade, in fact. Everyone keeps waiting for this perennial 25-100 guy to just drop off, but he doesn't. He was undervalued in Tampa last year and was batting .318 with 19 homers when the Cubs finally convinced him to leave home and get in a pennant race. While McGriff should easily knock in 110 runs this year with a slew of fastballs coming his way, Alou could do even better if he can stay healthy. Alou only got 513 at-bats last year and still had 108 RBI.
I'm taking a risk here, but I like Delino DeShields to have a nice bounce-back season. The guy was horrible last year, but he still stole bases. Remember how the Orioles announced he would bat third for them, and DeShields' price rocketed in auctions, with dreams of a 20-100-40 steal season dancing in our heads. Hey, he managed to knock in 86 runs in 2000. But DeShields couldn't even find time on the woeful Birds, earning a demotion and ending up in Chicago, where he couldn't play second because of Young and wasn't a good third baseman. Now DeShields should beat out Bobby Hill and be the regular second baseman, hit leadoff and at least cover the numbers Young did. A 100-run, 40 steal season is certainly possible.
Do you feel lucky? Corey Patterson has been a top prospect for long enough now that even fantasy owners are losing interest. Is he a 30-30 guy, or is he going to be like Ruben Rivera (on the field, we mean) and hit .210. Patterson didn't show much last year, and now someone named Roosevelt Brown is threatening to make him a platoon player. Patterson went for $7 in LABR, which is certainly a good price if he takes off. But you can't hit him at the top of the order. If Patterson is gone and Brown is sitting there, take a flyer on him. He's hit pretty much at every level in the minors but nobody knows about him. He's likely a fourth outfielder for Chicago, but hey, he's no Damon Buford.
If DeShields can't hit again then Hill could be a major sleeper. The word is that he'll either play a lot or end up in the minors, where he was a base-stealing, on-base machine in the mold of Pete Rose (um, again, on the field). Hill's worth a low bid in case his nice spring continues into April. Down the line he's a definite comer.
One of the underappreciated seasons from last year was Alex Gonzalez in Toronto, or, as he's commonly known, the good Alex Gonzalez. Don't laugh, but 17-76 and 18 steals from a middle infielder definitely gets it done. The average stinks, but don't get greedy. There was a time, and this is true, when Gonzalez was held in higher regard than then-Mariner Alex Rodriguez. It was when ARod managed a feeble .250 on-base average in the combined 1994-95 seasons in 200 or so at-bats. Of course, then ARod rocketed past just about every shortstop. Bottom line on AGonz: If he can give you 15 homers and 15 steals, even if he hits .240, grab him. He's no Rey Ordonez.
Be very, very careful: Every year someone bites on Todd Hundley and either takes him above established but average catchers or pays a big salary for him, hoping that that magical Mets season where he hit 41 dongs wasn't an aberration. Well, guess what. It wasn't. (Surprised you there.) However, Hundley is likely to never be healthy enough to do it again. Let someone else pay big bucks for him and watch Joe Girardi start half the time. And even he somehow finagles his way onto the All-Star team, Girardi is an All-Star like Siena has a chance to beat Maryland in the NCAA Tournament.
Now earlier we noted that Bill Mueller was a solid No. 2 hitter. Sure, he gets on base. But he has no power and even less speed, so he's not a great fantasy option. Also, he's hurt almost as much as Hundley. He'll begin the year on the DL, leaving Chris Stynes and Mark Bellhorn to play third base, or possibly DeShields could go there if Hill wins the job at second. Regardless, pass on Mueller. His career season featured 10 homers and a .268 average. He's no David Bell.
To be honest, Stynes has a chance to be a better fantasy pickup than Mueller, because he's somewhat of a runner. He wasn't last year, but nobody runs in Boston. Stynes is eligible right now at 2B and 3B and he could steal double-digit bases and hit for average in the No. 2 hole.
Last year I ended up with Julio Zuleta in the LABR draft for a buck, and he earned that dollar with a few homers. He's not a great prospect and now it's time for Hee Seop Choi to be the backup first baseman, or at least hold the fort until McGriff leaves town, which won't be this year. Be safe and pass on Choi.
Pitching, briefly: Don't wanna get too in-depth with the Cubs pitchers, but here's what I'm thinking: Most will end up overpriced.
Kerry Wood has the biggest upside on the staff, except if Kyle Farnsworth can be a big-time closer, but Wood should be viewed with some trepidation. His 174 innings last year were a surprise, but also a career-high. When he pitches he's really good. But consider him a little like the NL version of Pedro Martinez: There's a decent chance that Wood won't get 33 starts, so if you're looking for a 20-win season or 300 strikeouts, look elsewhere. People are probably paying for those numbers.
Likewise, Jon Lieber is the picture of health but he probably overachieved last year. In the two years before last, he won 22 games combined, and he struck out more hitters and his ERA and ratio were higher, but not by a ton. Lieber is more likely a 15-win guy with a 4.00 ERA, so bid accordingly.
If I had to guess I'd say phenom Mark Prior will not be in the rotation opening day, and whether he makes it up during the season or not is problematic and depends more on how Juan Cruz and Jason Bere fare than what Prior does. Prior's 21. Do they want another Kerry Wood situation with the arm? Keep him in the minors. And don't be shocked if Cruz doesn't earn the high praise everyone is heaping on him. He was mainly a five-inning starter last season, and his numbers could be deceiving.
As for the closing deal, it looks like Jeff Shaw doesn't want to play for less than $5 million, which is his way of saying he really doesn't want to play. It's like Mike Tyson; the guy talks a great game, but when it comes down to it, he'd rather not be in action. Shaw cannot possibly expect, at this stage of the spring, to earn that much money. I have Danny Graves on a few teams and I fully expect Graves will be Cincy's closer as well, with Shaw staying put. If Shaw really wanted to pitch he would've taken the $2 mill and incentive chances from the Cubs.
However, if Farnsworth can't hack it as the closer, look for the Cubs to possibly meet Shaw's demands for money (which means taking Shaw on your bench could work out). The Cubs feel they have a winning team now, and having Farnsworth and Jeff Fassero close could be real bad. Farnsworth was a dominating middle reliever last year, No. 3 in most people's minds fantasy wise behind Octavio Dotel and Felix Rodriguez. But closing is different. He's a hard thrower, though, so if Don Baylor can help Farnsworth keep his emotions in check, he could be a good one. I'd still opt for a safer guy. Fassero did save double digits in April-May last year, but it wasn't real pretty. Lefties do not close much. Look for Fassero to get a few saves, but Farnsworth to get more.
Lie down and have your questions answered...
Whitney, Martinsburg, W.V.: What is your opinion on how Brady Anderson is going to do this year? Do you think that last season was just an unlucky one, or do you think he is just getting older?
Shrink: Well, not to be rude, but it's both. He is, after all, getting older. And with the way he plays, it's a safe bet he'll get hurt at some point. But Anderson is a nice sleeper for this year. He's having a mammoth spring (not mammoth in hitting another 50 homers, of course), but he's running and hitting for some power. Cleveland doesn't have a better option than Brady for left field right now, or at leadoff. Don't be surprised if Anderson reaches double digits in homers and steals, but then eventually flames out.
Jay Levin, Blue Bell, Pa.: In a 5x5 league, who would you take between Josh Beckett and Brad Penny?
Shrink: While it's a bit risky, Beckett. His upside, especially in strikeouts, is frightening. Penny could get a lot better as well, but Beckett looks to me like something special, right away. Penny had 154 strikeouts in 200 innings last year, and projects to improve on that, but Beckett could be a 200-strikeout guy now and it's worth the same bid as Penny to find out.
Ryan Beck, Eugene, Ore.: I recently participated in an ESPN live draft (head-to-head, AL vs. NL) and one of my American League competitors drafted 9 (!) closers. Do you think this was a shrewd move or was this a person suffering from some sort of insanity? I only have two closers and am curious if I should pick up more from this other owner? The remaining two AL owners only have one closer so I am feeling confident that this owner was a bit crazy.
Shrink: This guy might be a bit insane, but when he deals these closers off one by one for established starting pitching, he won't look as silly. Don't pick up a closer off waivers just to keep up with him; in head to head you'll still have enough saves. I'd be happy with what you have and concentrate on other areas of concern, and be careful not to give this guy a great offensive player for one of his closers. The other thing is, if he makes no deals, this guy will likely win saves, ERA and ratio each week, since he has no starters, but never compete in wins. So he's already resigning himself to a certain amount of pitching points.