Since it was announced in May of 2015, the inaugural Boston Grand Prix has attracted even more skepticism than the usual fledgling Verizon IndyCar Series street race.
Scheduled for Labor Day weekend, the Boston GP is set to be staged on an 11-turn, 2.25-mile street course circling the Massachusetts Convention Center in the Seaport district on the South Boston waterfront. Organizers say they have sold more than 20,000 tickets since March 15 and are predicting a three-day crowd of 170,000.
Still, with the green flag less than five months away, it's still not clear whether the event will actually take place. Race organizers have so far struggled to obtain the necessary permits from the Convention Center Authority and several other state and local government agencies. The Feds are involved too, as the Environmental Protection Agency must approve a plan for paving over a previously capped toxic waste site (formerly the location of an auto scrapyard) on land near the convention center.
Organizers also face considerable public outcry from residents who have a hard time believing their lives will not be adversely affected during the three-month track construction and the subsequent two-month teardown -- not to mention the race weekend itself.
In short, the Boston GP has a lot of hurdles to overcome. But perhaps the biggest is the perception that most IndyCar street races are doomed to failure.
There are a couple notable examples -- the Long Beach Grand Prix (1975-present in several forms) and the Toronto Indy (1986 to present) -- that prove that a downtown racing event on the right temporary street course can be a successful long-term proposition. After a challenging start, an IndyCar street race in Surfers Paradise, Australia, also had a successful 18-year run through 2008 and continues in a modified form.
But since 1990, no fewer than 16 similar events have come and gone from cities across North America. Miami, Denver and Houston have each watched two versions of street races start up and fail to take off, and the average lifespan for such events is roughly three years.
Now Boston steps into the fray, promising to meet an ambitious track-building schedule in a congested commercial area and claiming that no taxpayer dollars will be spent on the event in any way.
Boston Mayor Marty Walsh's strong support of the event has also created waves in a city that thrives on cutthroat local politics.
INDYCAR CEO Mark Miles says he understands why there is skepticism about the race.
"I don't know how you can do a street race in a major metropolitan area and not have some apprehension on the part of people," Miles said. "If you look at places like Long Beach and Toronto, we know that communities can embrace these races and they can have real longevity.
"It's probably human nature to fear the worst or fear the unexpected. But we think we can make it work in Boston."
For the moment, the biggest challenge is securing all the required government signoffs by April 30 so the track build can begin on schedule.
"For some time, we have believed that everything will be in place, the race will go on and it will be a very successful event," Miles said. "There are countless boxes that have to be ticked, approvals that have to be gained from a number of government entities involved, and a process to make sure that neighbors and businesses in the area are communicated with and all the right contingency plans for them are in place.
"But I think our guys are doing that and I think we're going to be in good shape."
Organizers have held monthly community meetings at the convention center and believe visible signs of progress will help get the public and local media on board. The Grand Prix has also frequently been an agenda item at city council meetings, including at a three-hour special hearing in early April.
While the Boston Herald newspaper appears to remain solidly opposed to the event, the rival Boston Globe came out in support of it in a March 31 editorial, stating: "If the planning pans out, the race will provide a burst of excitement -- as well as a financial boost -- to offset the malaise that typically descends at summer's end."
The question is whether Boston has the three things that seem to be crucial to the long-term health of an urban street race: a picturesque track that challenges competitors, attracts spectators and doesn't have a major impact on daily life in the area; a car- or motorsports-savvy audience; and a promoter (or title sponsor) with deep pockets that is willing to ride out the inevitable losses of the event's early years.
Southern California is famous for its car culture, and Canada enjoys a rich road-racing heritage, making Long Beach and Toronto natural markets for street-course events. The fact that few major streets are shut down to run those events (in fact, much of the Toronto course winds through the seldom-used Canadian National Exhibition grounds) helps organizers keep the peace with residents.
The site of the Boston race is less ideal: It will affect two subway lines and traffic on Interstates 90 and 93.
Strong corporate support from Toyota and Molson, respectively, enabled the Long Beach and Toronto events to enjoy the kind of financial stability that contributed to their long-term success. Boston organizers haven't landed a title sponsor, but state that more than 40 corporate partners have been signed.
Meanwhile, IndyCar racing as a whole has struggled to maintain an audience in the northeast: It failed to take advantage of Formula One's departure from Watkins Glen, New York, in the early '80s, and an oval race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway sputtered out after a couple of attempts.
The event is also dogged by the spectre of the Baltimore Grand Prix, which debuted with great fanfare and big crowds in 2011 and looked like it might actually catch on. But it lasted only three years, undone by its inability to keep a solvent promoter and paid vendors, as well as the difficulty of finding a consistently available date on the IndyCar schedule.
Boston isn't notable for its love of cars or racing, but the proposed track could produce a decent race. It's unique among American street courses for including a brief tunnel, which runs beneath a section of the convention center.
"The underground aspect is very unique," said IndyCar Series championship leader Simon Pagenaud after lapping sections of the track in a street car. "I mainly look forward to hearing the sound of the car as I drive under it.
"The layout is very fun, and the track itself is in a fast-growing area with a great dynamic," he added. "It's a wide track with fast corners and the smooth roads after all of the work, [which] will most likely make this track one of the fastest street tracks there is."
Until permits are granted and the concrete barriers currently in storage start to be set in place to mark out the course, the status of the Boston Grand Prix will remain in doubt. A small faction in the IndyCar community believes it would be less embarrassing for the series to pull the plug on the controversial event before it ever happens than to show up once or twice and retreat in a storm of ill will and bad publicity.
But things generally seem to be on the upswing for the IndyCar Series, and adding a successful Labor Day weekend event in a major market like Boston is an important part of the series' hopes for growth. With the buzz surrounding the 100th running of the Indianapolis 500 this May likely to wear off quickly, IndyCar needs to develop a rota of marquee events throughout its season, and the series is relying on Boston to join Long Beach and Toronto as one of those anchors.
Can it happen? Absolutely. But all signs point to a bumpy road getting there.