SEARS POINT, Calif. -- If a couple of caution flags had fallen Will Power's way this year, the Team Penske driver might be a lot closer to defending his Verizon IndyCar Series championship.
Of course, had a full-course caution not ruined Juan Pablo Montoya's race at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, the Colombian might have already clinched this year's title.
Led by Montoya, six drivers remain mathematically eligible for the IndyCar crown heading into the GoPro Grand Prix of Sonoma, Sunday's 85-lap season finale at Sonoma Raceway. And pit stop strategy might be the deciding factor in determining the winner of the race and the season champion.
IndyCar's policy is to close the pits when a full-course caution is called, which packs up the field behind the pace car and often leads to chaos in the pits if the majority of the field stops all at once.
If a driver happens to have made his or her pit stop immediately before a yellow, it creates a huge advantage for that driver. It happens far more frequently in the IndyCar Series than it does in any other form of motorsport.
At Mid-Ohio, the complexion of the race changed radically when Sage Karam spun with 15 laps remaining. Several drivers, including Graham Rahal, Justin Wilson and Simon Pagenaud, had already made their final stops. Montoya, who had led the race from the start, had not yet stopped; trapped behind the pace car, he and the other front-runners dropped behind those who had already stopped and were mired in traffic for the rest of the race.
Rahal, Wilson and Pagenaud finished 1-2-3 after qualifying midpack.
Montoya was unhappy after the race, mainly, he said, because he thought Karam spun on purpose to create a yellow to help his teammate Scott Dixon. But JPM conveniently forgot that what got him into the lead in the first place -- after running no higher than sixth in the first stint -- was an early first stop immediately before a Lap 21 yellow.
"I feel this year you'd be better to qualify in the back, knock your front wing off, then you have a really good chance of winning," joked Power, who experienced both good and bad luck with yellows during the Mid-Ohio race and ended up finishing 15th.
"Obviously a lot of races have been decided by yellows this year. It's kind of mixed the field up."
At Toronto, Josef Newgarden qualified 11th and was running ninth when he ducked into the pits on Lap 27 of 85, perhaps a lap or two earlier than ideal for running a two-stop strategy on fuel. Almost simultaneously, the yellow flew for James Jakes' crash. After two slow laps behind the pace car with the pits closed, the majority of the field pitted, and Newgarden was thrust into the lead. It was perfect timing for CFH Racing's strategy, and he went on to win the race.
"I'm not going to deny that that yellow for sure helped us win this race," Newgarden said. "It got us in position to be able to win the race, without a doubt.
"We got a little bit of luck to win today, but sometimes you need it, and I've seen many people get it before."
Good luck and bad luck with yellows tends to balance out for most over the course of a season. For the drivers, the main concern is what they perceive as a lack of consistency from IndyCar in terms of when cautions are called and when the pits are closed.
"This year, it's been very strange on just how things fall, whether the [caution] is called for debris or not," observed three-time IndyCar Series champion Scott Dixon. "It's a 50/50 shot. Makes it hard to race that way because you don't know the way it's going to go."
For this weekend's IndyCar championship-deciding race at Sonoma Raceway, pit stop strategy could be determined by tire degradation. Firestone has brought new primary and alternate tires to Sonoma with a softer compound than has been used in the past at the undulating road course.
Several drivers got to assess the new primary tire during an Aug. 18 test at the circuit, but no one got any experience with the red-sidewall alternate until qualifying on Saturday afternoon.
After a 3½-hour test session on Friday, several drivers already expressed concerns about getting even the primary tire through a full 25- to 30-lap stint.
"I think it will be really interesting, just the way the road courses have played out this year," said Dixon, who is third in the standings, 47 points behind Montoya. "This weekend, I think degradation is going to be the biggest thing, whether it's going to be there or not. In the race here a few years ago, we had high degradation on the red tires. They were very fast, but they fell off a little bit, which made the race actually turn out phenomenal.
"No one's going to have a clue how this whole thing is going to play out," he added. "I think it will be exciting."
Power, who was fastest in the Friday test session, said he expects heavy wear from the tires on Sunday.
"Basically on a long run, it definitely degrades a lot," he said. "I think that will create good racing."
With a 34-point lead on Rahal, Montoya can clinch the championship if he finishes third or better. He's naturally hoping to run near the front in a clean race, but he isn't unduly worried if he qualifies poorly or gets dropped into the pack through different strategies.
"Anything can happen with the cautions and the way the race normally plays out," he said. "I mean, we had a penalty last year in qualifying, started 19th, and finished third."
Power ranks fourth in the standings, 61 points behind teammate Montoya, and he basically needs a miracle to repeat as series champion. Excluding bonus points for pole position and laps led, he needs to win, with Montoya finishing 10th or worse. But he's not giving up hope.
"I think it will be really interesting, just the way the road courses have played out this year," he said.
"No one's going to have a clue how this whole thing is going to play out. I think it will be exciting."