INDIANAPOLIS -- With the focus the past week at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on crashes and flying cars, comparatively little attention has been paid to the upcoming Indianapolis 500 (Sunday, noon ET, ABC).
In just a couple of days, the 33 starters will have to block out any thoughts about danger and drama and maintain their focus for three intense hours on what many believe is still auto racing's greatest prize.
Though the cars are slightly different this year -- with wings and other bodywork designed by Chevrolet and Honda added to the central Dallara chassis -- the drivers say the complexion of the race should be similar to those of the past three years.
And that's good news, because the past three 500s have been as competitive and exciting as any race at Indy in recent memory.
The 2012 race was decided in thrilling fashion when Takuma Sato's attempted pass of Dario Franchitti left the Japanese driver in the wall and the Scotsman in Victory Lane for the third and final time.
Tony Kanaan put more than a decade of heartache in the mirror to claim the 2013 race, while Ryan Hunter-Reay denied Helio Castroneves a record-tying fourth Indianapolis victory by beating the Brazilian to the Yard of Bricks by just 0.06 seconds, the second-closest margin of victory in the 98 times the 500 has been run.
The 2013 contest featured an astounding 68 lead changes, and with 34 apiece, 2012 and 2014 weren't bad either. However, many of those lead changes are artificial, because the cars used since 2012 create a much bigger draft and slingshot effect than in the past, making it disadvantageous to lead, particularly in the late laps.
The last time one driver dominated the 500 was in 2010 with the old car, when Franchitti led 155 of 200 laps. Since 2012, the most laps any driver has led is 57.
The length of the race gives teams and drivers the ability to tune their car for the conditions and prepare for the inevitable shootout over the final 20 laps. The larger teams with the most engineering resources usually prevail, but the vagaries of the Brickyard sometimes produce big moments for the little guy -- such as when the late Dan Wheldon triumphed for Bryan Herta Autosport in 2011.
Team Penske is the most successful team in the history of the Indianapolis 500 with 15 wins, but its most recent came with Castroneves in 2009. Chip Ganassi Racing, Penske and Andretti Autosport have combined to win eight of the past 10 500s.
With those teams controlling 14 of the 33 cars in the field, it's unlikely that an outsider can break through. But there are still some extraordinarily strong contenders, including two-time Indy pole winner Ed Carpenter and Graham Rahal, who is driving as well as he ever has and arrives at Indianapolis on the heels of two consecutive second-place finishes in the Verizon IndyCar Series.
It's a stretch to say that any of the 33 drivers in the field could win Sunday's race, but there are at least 15 who have the talent and the team behind them to get the job done if everything falls their way. Here's a brief analysis of the field, broken into five categories:
THE FAVORITE: Scott Dixon
Already the most successful active driver in the IndyCar Series with three championships and 36 race wins, Dixon can cement his status as the best Indy car driver of the 21st century with a second Indy win. The New Zealander had a smooth week of practice and was demonstrably quickest in qualifying. Yet, he knows how quickly things can turn around at Indianapolis.
"There's a lot of good cars," Dixon said. "I think as far as outright speed, the 9 [himself] and the 1 [Team Penske's Will Power] may have a slight advantage, but it's hard to tell because we went very early in the draw, which I think helped us.
"The draft is bigger, and strategy-wise it's quite a tough race, with nine or 10 pit stops," he added. "Unfortunately for us, there are a lot of other good cars that could win this race."
THE SERIOUS CONTENDERS: Will Power, Simon Pagenaud, Tony Kanaan, Helio Castroneves, Marco Andretti, Ed Carpenter, Juan Pablo Montoya, Ryan Hunter-Reay
Power is the defending IndyCar Series champion, but his best finish at Indianapolis was fifth in 2009, before he was even a full-time member of Team Penske. After three near misses, the Australian overcame his championship jinx last year and has stated repeatedly that winning the Indianapolis 500 is his next goal. With a victory in the May 9 Grand Prix of Indianapolis on the IMS road course, Power got the month off to a good start. But the biggest job remains at hand.
The sheer might of the Penske organization makes any of the team's four drivers a threat to win, and Castroneves and Montoya are former Indy winners. Yet many give the best chance to outside front row qualifier Pagenaud, whose patient, engineering-driven approach is perfect for the demands of Indianapolis.
Andretti Autosport also has a strong record at Indianapolis, with three wins since 2005. The Andretti team likely represents Honda's best chance at victory, with perennial bridesmaid Marco Andretti (five finishes of fourth or better in nine starts) and defending Indy champion Hunter-Reay both solid bets.
Kanaan, meanwhile, used his 2013 victory in the 500 for KV Racing to rejuvenate his career. The Brazilian is the IndyCar Series' most recent 500-mile race winner, at Auto Club Speedway to close out the 2014 season -- his first with the powerful Ganassi team.
Then there is Carpenter, the hometown favorite and adopted son of IndyCar Series founder Tony George. Carpenter missed his shot at a third consecutive Indianapolis pole when he crashed heavily on the qualifying day, but he rebounded to secure the 12th-place starting position.
THE DARK HORSES: Justin Wilson, Sebastien Bourdais, Josef Newgarden, JR Hildebrand, Carlos Munoz, Takuma Sato, Graham Rahal, Oriol Servia
Wilson was the highest Honda qualifier, placing sixth for Andretti Autosport. But Rahal might represent the marque's best shot at victory. The 26-year-old son of former Indy winner Bobby Rahal has stepped up his game this season, and sponsorship from popular local burger chain Steak 'n Shake has given Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing an unexpected boost.
Munoz hasn't garnered much attention elsewhere, but he's started his Indy car career as a bit of an Indianapolis specialist, finishing second and fourth in his first two starts. Sato came oh-so-close to winning the 2012 500 and is capable of running very strongly on race day, while Servia and Bourdais are former teammates and veterans of the Champ Car series, both fast and experienced drivers.
Hildebrand has the most interesting story: He crashed away the lead in the last corner of the last lap of the 2011 race, handing the victory to Wheldon. Out of a full-time ride since mid-2012, he was on the way to a top-five finish in the recent Indianapolis GP before a mechanical problem took him out, and he's been fast all week in practice on the oval. If there's anybody who is owed anything by this year's field, it's Hildebrand.
THE FIELD FILLERS: Charlie Kimball, Simona de Silvestro, Alex Tagliani, Sage Karam, Townsend Bell, Sebastian Saavedra, Ryan Briscoe
Kimball is a race winner in the IndyCar Series, but victory at Indianapolis would have to be called a surprise. Karam was impressive last year as an Indy rookie, and he and Saavedra have the Ganassi team working in their favor. Bell runs surprisingly well in the only Indy car race he competes in annually, while de Silvestro is a fan favorite with a tough-luck history at Indy.
Briscoe is in the toughest situation, stepping in for the injured James Hinchcliffe at Schmidt-Peterson Motorsport. The team made a good choice in tabbing the winner of eight career IndyCar Series races, but with barely an hour of practice time with an unfamiliar car and team, victory is not likely.
THE LONG SHOTS: James Jakes, Conor Daly, Pippa Mann, Gabby Chaves, Jack Hawksworth, Stefano Coletti, Bryan Clauson, James Davison
The likelihood of any of these drivers winning is close to zero, but most of them are capable of finishing in the top 10. Chaves and Coletti are the only first-year drivers in the field competing for rookie of the year honors.