FONTANA, Calif. -- OK, let's cut to the chase: The only thing that really matters in Saturday night's MAVTV 500 at Auto Club Speedway is whether Will Power holds on to win his first Verizon IndyCar Series championship or falters again with the title in sight.
Power holds a 39-point advantage over his Team Penske teammate Helio Castroneves heading into the IndyCar Series closer, a seemingly comfortable margin except for two things:
First, like the other 500-mile races on the IndyCar schedule this year, the Fontana finale (9 p.m. ET Saturday, NBCSN) counts for double points -- 100 points for a win, instead of the usual 50.
Then there's Power's dubious history in championship shootouts, which includes two crashes (at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2010 and Auto Club Speedway in 2012) and a critical pit lane incident at Kentucky Speedway in 2011.
Power held the advantage heading into the final round all three years -- by 12 points in 2010, 11 in '11 and 17 in '12 -- but every year he came up short, twice to Dario Franchitti and then to Ryan Hunter-Reay.
So, even though Castroneves seems a long way back, and Simon Pagenaud (minus-81), Hunter-Reay (minus-92) and Scott Dixon (minus-103) would need a miracle ... well, strange things happen when Power is involved.
The Australian could counter by saying that he arrives at Fontana thinking not of the spin last weekend at Sonoma Raceway that cost him a potential race win and could have put the championship out of reach but instead of his victory at Auto Club Speedway a year ago, when the 2013 championship was out of reach.
"To me it's obviously just about aiming for a top-5 finish, absolutely," he said during a conference call Wednesday afternoon. "The mindset is just to really work hard on getting the car right. Obviously the rest you can't control. So I'm just really focusing on the job that I have to do.
"Obviously it was definitely a great finish to the year last year, but it's a different field, and actually things just get tougher and tougher all the time in this series," Power added. "Winning last year definitely doesn't make me feel comfortable going in. I know that it's going to take a lot of hard work and a very good race to win the championship. I'm just focusing on the things I can control."
Power has led more laps than anyone else in 2014 and his three race wins ties Hunter-Reay for best in the series. Yet a series of crashes, pit penalties and last week's spin at Sonoma have managed to keep Castroneves & Co. within range.
Complicating things, the two main contenders in this year's title chase have both operated under the Team Penske awning, with teammate Juan Pablo Montoya also sneaking into the top five in the standings.
"We all understand that this championship is most important for Team Penske," Castroneves remarked. "Yes, I understand I've been in many battles like that, and I definitely am going to go there and drive my heart out. But at the same time you've got to understand that it's a team perspective, and they've been in the hunt for so many years and we've got to execute it as a team, as well.
"I want to be the one to do it. I know Will wants to be the one to do it, and we've just got to go out there and do what we did the entire year, and then the best team wins."
Power's victory at Auto Club Speedway a year ago was viewed as a breakthrough because it was his first oval win in a full-length race.
Last year, he was out of championship contention, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts to that pressure this weekend.
"Man, that win last year was just awesome," Power said. "I said it then and I still believe it was the best win of my career. To go out and lead the most laps and have such an awesome car was a great way to end last year, and I think it really gave us a lot to build on for this season.
"Thinking back on that race may help put us in a good frame of mind entering this weekend, but we still need to go out and get the job done on Saturday night," he added. "Yes, we have a lead going into this race, but we can't rest on that or it will go away fast. If we do the best we can to try and win here again in the Verizon Chevy, the rest will take care of itself."
Tony Kanaan is out of championship contention, but he is looking to score his first race win for Target Chip Ganassi Racing. Kanaan has five podium finishes in the previous seven races and would love to end his 2014 campaign on a high note.
With a win and a second-place finish at Auto Club Speedway the past two years, Ed Carpenter can't be thought of as a dark horse, and the IndyCar Series' only owner/driver is likely to figure in the mix again Saturday night.
Carpenter is set to merge his team with Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing in 2015.
"To be honest, winning at Fontana would be a tremendous way to close out the run at Ed Carpenter Racing," he said. "I am very much looking forward to the future, but winning the last ECR race has really been on my mind since we announced the new team."