NHL teams
Craig Custance, ESPN Senior Writer 11y

Capitals face uncertain path forward

NHL, Washington Capitals

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- It was another loss in a season that's already been too full of them. This time on Tuesday night, the Capitals were defeated by an average Toronto team, one that had played the night before. New coach Adam Oates had the unpleasant task of delivering his evaluation of the game, which wasn't going to be exactly what a fan base (or owner) tired of losing wanted to hear. And it wasn't going to be much different than anything he'd been saying now for several days.

Oates liked the effort. Again. He liked the opportunities his team created. He agreed that it's hard to maintain the confidence of his team during the slow start in his first year as the coach but he'll find examples of where it's working and highlight them.

In this game there was another deflating goal, a miscommunication behind the net between Tom Poti and Michal Neuvirth that led to an early deficit. Every Caps game lately seems to have an equivalent moment.

At one point, as Oates patiently agreed with criticism while maintaining his positive approach, he was asked: When does a good effort stop being enough? Is the time approaching where the results must accompany the effort?

"Sure," he answered.

If this team truly is trying to build a Stanley Cup winner, that moment isn't nearly as close as Capitals fans may want it to be. And possibly not as close as owner Ted Leonsis wants it to be either. There's reason to believe a shot at a Stanley Cup isn't far off. Just not this year.

A hard reality

In their current form, the Capitals aren't a Stanley Cup-winning team. Because of the shortened season, they're probably not even a playoff team.

That opinion, however, isn't shared by someone whose opinion counts most. During a Monday phone conversation, Leonsis shared his immediate expectations.

"I believe this is a playoff team now. Even if you look at where we're situated today," Leonsis said then. "I think the team in the eighth spot, we're three points behind. There's plenty of time this year for us to be better and be a playoff team. We saw last year the team that finished with the eighth-best record in the West won the Cup. The focus has to be on more production from the team and getting points and qualifying for the playoffs."

As it stands now, the Capitals are only four points outside a playoff spot heading in to tonight's rematch against the Penguins. So in that regard, Leonsis is correct, although there's half a conference to leapfrog to get there.

But there's also been a perfect storm working against the Capitals this season because of the lockout. Start with the injuries. A top four on defense of Mike Green, Karl Alzner, John Carlson and Dmitry Orlov is good, even playoff good. But Orlov (undisclosed injury) hasn't played a minute this season and it's quite possible he doesn't suit up at all. The team's heart and soul forward, Brooks Laich, (groin) is also still out.

In the meantime, if the team was depending on Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom to carry them while others who didn't play during the lockout (like the entire defense) worked into game shape, that hasn't happened. Their adjustment back to the NHL is still in progress.

And then there's the new system, already under the microscope because everything is amped up and magnified during the 48-game season.

It's going to take a good 20 games to get it right. That's what it took under previous head coach Dale Hunter, and his objectives were easier to grasp. Players are progressing towards a better understanding of where to be and what their expectations are on the ice. That started after the Devils game on Jan. 25. But there's a difference between knowing what to do and allowing your individual talents to flourish within that system. That isn't happening yet and it may not for a while.

"Once you understand the system, that's when you can start being creative. That's when the goals come," said defenseman Mike Green. "That's when the flow of the game comes, rather than, you're thinking too much about the system. That's when you don't get your breaks and you're a step behind."

Like the Caps have been for most of the season.

The players remain confident that moment will eventually happen, just like it did in New Jersey, but it may not be at a point that's soon enough to save this season. Not when there are only 38 games left.

"Yeah," Green said. "That's the problem. It needs to be tomorrow."

Win now ...

That's the dilemma that faces GM George McPhee in what could be the most challenging year of his career running the Capitals. He has an owner with expectations of winning today and a team better poised to win next year and best set up to win in two years.

The Capitals are in a unique place in their development. They easily could have been one of those young teams like the Blackhawks or Penguins to win a Stanley Cup, with the 2010 team the most likely candidate. They didn't. Now there's an evolution into a franchise with a core who learned the hard way how to win that will eventually be boosted by the next wave of young talent. The young talent isn't there yet, but it's coming.

So what does McPhee do right now? He's been the general manager since 1997, does he still have the security to think big picture with this franchise?

"We haven't figured out a way to get past the second round of the playoffs," Leonsis said. "I expect us to be good this year and good [in the future]. Until I see that we're not trying to do things to make us a team that can win the Cup, then I'll know it's time. I think George is constantly trying to make us that team."

If there's something he believes he can do immediately to help the Capitals win right now, McPhee will do it. Considering the needs of this team and the early hole, at least one of these moves would have to happen at some point in the near future to rally back into the playoff hunt:

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