The Christmas break means the action stops on the ice for three straight days and affords us a chance to ponder the standings, and where it's all going to take us before the end of the regular season. More than 40 percent of the regular season is gone, more than enough to gauge what's already going to likely play out, but not completely. There will still perhaps be one or two teams on each side who play themselves into a playoff spot, and likewise one or two teams who slip out before it's all said and done on Saturday, April 11. Let's take a look into our crystal ball:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
At the break, the Toronto Maple Leafs (43 points) and Washington Capitals (40 points) hold the two wild-card spots in the East, although the New York Rangers (40 points) have a tenuous hold on the third playoff spot in the Metropolitan. Thing is, New York is beginning to look like its old self, the Rangers winners of seven straight entering the break, and I don't see the Blueshirts going backward. Book them a playoff spot now.
Detroit holds the No. 3 playoff spot in the Atlantic and I think the Red Wings will back up just a bit into a wild-card playoff race with the Maple Leafs, Caps and Florida Panthers. That's because I see the Boston Bruins making it all the way back up to a top-three spot in the Atlantic, with the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Bruins have battled key injuries all season but are getting healthier. They're going to trade for a top-six winger at some point. They're too good, too savvy, too experienced to miss the playoffs, in my mind.
That leaves me having to pick between the Red Wings, Panthers, Leafs and Caps for two wild-card playoff spots. Detroit gets one of them, count on it, as long as the Wings stay healthy enough -- they have too much talent to miss out. Besides, they never miss the playoffs!
The Leafs have scored the most goals (118) of any team sitting in a playoff spot in the East. Of course, the Leafs have also given up the most goals (102) of any team sitting in a playoff spot in the East. Their continued struggles in the analytics department also is well-documented. This is just such an unpredictable team.
The Caps are beginning to show a bit more structure under the excellent coaching of Barry Trotz. Which is why I'm so torn on them. I believe in Trotz. But I don't believe in the soul of this team. Just too much carryover from all those underperforming Caps teams of the past.
I like the young Panthers. They're solid in the analytics department, although they are 27th in goals per game. Injuries will dictate so much of how this all plays out. I'd love to see Florida make it in but I think the Panthers will fall just short.
So, it comes down to the Caps or Leafs joining the Wings as a wild-card team. My pick is the Leafs will slide in.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The Anaheim Ducks (51 points), Chicago Blackhawks (48 points), Nashville Predators (46 points), St. Louis Blues (45 points) and Los Angeles Kings (41 points) are playoff-bound. And I know that the Kings aren't sitting pretty, holding the final wild-card spot at the break, just two points out of the danger spot. But who's kidding whom? The rope-a-dope masters will turn it on in the second half like they always do and take care of business.
But that still leaves three playoff spots very much open to discussion, the No. 2 and No. 3 slots in the Pacific Division held by the San Jose Sharks (43 points) and Vancouver Canucks (42 points), respectively, plus the wild-card spot occupied by the surprising Winnipeg Jets (43 points).
The Sharks have turned it up a notch over the past month after opening the season looking like the rebuild would mean a tear-down, but now look good enough to hang in there at least for a playoff spot. Vancouver and Winnipeg are both regression candidates, but I really just see one team among the non-playoff holders that can jump up, and that's the Minnesota Wild (35 points). The Wild are such a solid puck possession team and deep up front, it's somewhat mystifying to see where they are at the break. Then again, when you look at a 21st ranking for goals against per game, you also realize the goaltending hasn't been top notch. Still, I think the Wild have a good shot at battling back into a playoff spot in the second half.
The surprising Calgary Flames are just two points out of a playoff spot at the break but I think everyone can recognize that reality is setting in after such a torrid opening two months. I don't see the rebuilding Flames hanging on and being in the playoff race.
But if Minnesota does threaten for a playoff spot, which teams do the Wild threaten? I think it's Vancouver and Winnipeg. It would be fantastic to see the Jets make the playoffs for the first time since the NHL returned to Winnipeg; that rink rocks like few others and those fans deserve playoff games. But those massive injuries on the blue line really scare me. The Jets continue to defy it, playing a great game in Chicago while beating the Blackhawks just before the break. And I truly believe the players are buying what Paul Maurice is selling in terms of a defensive structure and mindset that is leading to success. The Jets are a solid team when it comes to the sexy stats, which helps in projecting some form of sustainability as long as the blue-line injuries don't wreck it all. Or as long as the goaltending -- which has been outstanding -- doesn't come back down to earth.
The Canucks, whom I picked to make the postseason before the season, have faded over the past month, although they won their last two games before the break. Their fancy stats aren't overwhelming, so there's that, not to mention the fact they're just 20th in goals against per game.
Either the Wild have dug too big a hole, or the Canucks or Jets fade to allow Minnesota back in. Somewhere in between all that I think is what you'll see transpire. My pick is you'll see the Canucks get in.
As always, some of these races will come down to the final weekend. Should be fun.