Expanded playoffs -- it's when, not if
Roger Goodell's announcement that the NFL is considering playoff expansion comes at an interesting time.
Week 15 is the defining week of the 2012 NFL season. At no time in NFL history have six games this late in the season featured winning teams going against winning teams. The previous latest time it happened was in Week 14 of 2003. Ratings this week should be huge, and they deserve to be.
But a lot of drama is missing in these final weeks. Three of the eight divisions were clinched two weeks ago. The Houston Texans already are in the playoffs. Baltimore and Green Bay can clinch division titles with victories Sunday, and the Indianapolis Colts can clinch at least a wild-card spot if they beat the Texans.
That could leave as few as four playoff spots available in the final two weeks. This season, more than in the past, there are more haves than have-nots. The New York Jets -- a have-not on offense -- still have a chance at a playoff spot, but that's because only seven AFC teams have the appearance of being playoff-caliber. The AFC is down this season.
Which brings us to the idea of expanding the playoffs. Would it cheapen the playoffs? In theory, of course it would. Will it happen? Of course it will. The only question is when.
Goodell wants teams that have made the playoffs to play their starters, not rest them. He's been the most proactive commissioner in sports on the issue. He's moved a good percentage of the divisional games to the final two weeks to heighten divisional races.
I have contended that there is no way to change that practice. The Patriots, for example, are in the same position they've been in most years. They are tough to beat in late November and December, and they clinch their division early enough to rest starters.
Expanding the playoffs to 14 teams or 16 teams would heighten interest in otherwise meaningless games. It would make those divisional games more interesting. If the playoffs had 14 teams, the loser of next week's Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game would still make the playoffs. Go to 16 games, and the Jets could make it at 8-8 or 7-9. Based on this season's records, 11 NFC teams would be playing for something in the final weeks.
As everyone knows, Goodell wants an 18-game regular-season, but players don't. As everyone knows, Goodell doesn't like the preseason. I could see playoff expansion as a tradeoff for shortening the preseason from four games to two. Owners would lose the revenue from a home game if the preseason goes from four to two, but the extra playoff games would generate more revenue.
Playoff expansion also could balance the playoffs. Under the current scheme, the top two seeds are rewarded with a bye week if they have the best records in their conference. Often, though, those rewards are gifts. Some bye recipients are products of easy schedules and pay the price by losing their first home playoff game.
The NFL is having one of its more competitive seasons. Through Week 14, 115 games have been decided by eight points or fewer, a record. Twenty games have gone into overtime through Week 14, second most to this point in any season. Fourth-quarter comebacks are at an all-time high.
The competition committee will seek the input of coaches and general managers immediately after the season, and a vote on expanded playoffs will occur in March. I can see a 14- or 16-team format happening. If it doesn't happen next season, it will in the future.
Here are the trends for NFL Week 15:
1. Is this Soldier Field or M*A*S*H? The Bears listed 11 players who couldn't practice on their Wednesday injury report. Bears coach Lovie Smith elected to have a walk-through instead of practice. The Green Bay Packers have had seven inactive players because of injuries each of the past two weeks. Dr. James Andrews should be the play-by-play announcer for this game. Of the two teams, the Packers seem to be healing the fastest. Linebacker Clay Matthews and defensive end Mike Neal could be back Sunday. The Bears won't have Brian Urlacher and could also be missing cornerback Tim Jennings, wide receiver Earl Bennett and others. The Packers have weathered their injuries, and the Bears haven't. The Packers have won seven of their past eight games. The Bears have lost four of their past five, and the pressure in this game falls exclusively on them. All of the sudden, Smith's future is at stake. Smith enters the final year of his contract in 2013. He's due an extension. But last year's collapse and the possibility of a collapse that would keep his team from the playoffs this season could put his job in jeopardy. The Packers can win the division with a victory, and the Bears could still make it as a wild card if they lose this game but win the final two road games against Detroit and Arizona. A lot is on the line Sunday.
2. Is the AFC South in play? The Texans were humbled in their 42-14 loss to the New England Patriots on Monday night, but was there really any urgency for the Texans? Before the game, they held a two-game lead for AFC home-field advantage over teams that had clinched their divisions. Clinching the No. 1 seed is still within sight, but on Sunday, the Texans should have urgency. The Colts come to town, and Bruce Arians is talking about bringing the division title back to Indianapolis. The Colts, who have two games against the Texans in the final three weeks, are motivated. Like Houston, the Colts had a playoff test on the road against the Patriots four weeks ago and lost, 59-24. The Colts have been tough on the road, but they haven't beaten a winning team on the road. The key to the game might be the second quarter. Andrew Luck has displayed incredible comeback ability, and he's needed it. The Colts have been outscored 131-73 in the second quarter this season. Luck has to compensate for some of the holes created by the Colts' defensive conversion to a 3-4. He's done it well, but the Texans are one of the most complete teams in football.
3. Following the Peyton Manning model: The most stunning news at the start of Week 15 was the Ravens' firing of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. During the offseason, Cameron received a contract extension, but part of the deal was accepting well-liked Jim Caldwell as a quarterbacks coach. Caldwell worked many years in Indianapolis with Peyton Manning, and John Harbaugh wanted him to bring ideas about the no-huddle offense and shotgun to Baltimore. How fitting is it that Caldwell's first game as a coordinator is against Manning, now a member of the 10-3 Denver Broncos? The Ravens' offense has been sputtering. The past four games, the Ravens have scored only 77 points. Their 4.9 yards-per-play average during that span is the sixth worst in the league. To clinch the AFC North, Joe Flacco must outduel Manning, aided by a coach Manning knows so well.
4. America's Team faces tough...
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