Division races lack usual sizzle
John Clayton [ARCHIVE]
ESPN.com
November 05, 2009
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Because the bad teams have been so bad, the 2009 season doesn't have the parity the NFL has been accustomed to for years. The average margin of victory has crept to more than 14 points a game. Six of last season's 10-loss teams (there were nine) are heading in the same direction.

The surprising part of the season is the large percentage of division races turning into runaways. The Saints lead the NFC South by three games. The Vikings (NFC North) and Colts (AFC South) lead their divisions by two and a half games. The Broncos hold a two-game lead over the Chargers in the AFC West, and the Patriots have a game-and-a-half lead in the AFC East.

Even if the Chargers make the AFC West interesting, four division races could be all but decided by the end of Week 9. If the Colts beat Houston on Sunday, they will own the AFC South by an insurmountable three-and-a-half-game lead. By beating Miami, the Patriots would increase their lead in the AFC East to two games over the Jets and three games over the Dolphins.

The only real races are in the AFC North and NFC East. The problem facing the NFC East winner is seeding in the playoffs. As usual, NFC East teams are hitting each other hard, making it tough for any team to come out of division play with fewer than two losses. Under these circumstances, the winner of the NFC East is almost destined to be a third seed to the Saints and Vikings. The Saints already have a two-game lead over the Eagles in playoff seeding and a two-and-a-half-game lead over the Giants. Plus, New Orleans has beaten both teams.

The AFC North should be a dogfight. The Bengals, who are tied for first with the Steelers at 5-2, already have beaten every team in the division. Over the next two weeks, though, Cincinnati plays the Ravens and Steelers again. Something has to give.

That doesn't mean the second half of the season will be without drama. The wild-card races should be wilder than ever. There could be as many as two 10-win teams in each conference that end up on the outside looking in.

From the inbox

Q: John, what's your take on the Chiefs' offense? Matt Cassel's problem is the O-line. Kansas City has given up the most sacks in the NFL. Also, he is getting no help from a putrid running game.

Karl in Salina, Kan.

A: Often, there are multiple problems that cause an offense to be as bad as the Chiefs'. I think Cassel is a decent quarterback. He showed that in New England last season with great receivers who can run after the catch. I agree with you on the offensive line. It's evident that the line can't pass protect, but I contend it can't run block, either. If the holes aren't there for Larry Johnson or any of the other backs, the running game is going nowhere. The Chiefs have to rebuild the offensive line. They are fine on the left side, but they haven't done enough on the right side. I also think they need more receiving help.

Q: Derek Anderson is by far one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. I'm sure he's a good guy and all, but he can't quarterback a franchise. His numbers from his Pro Bowl season were blown up by the fact that he had a pretty decent offensive line giving him time to throw, and two deserving Pro-Bowl receivers in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr. What explanation can Eric Mangini have for not just putting Brady Quinn in? He's the more accurate of the two, and has the higher potential for success.

Kyle in Cleveland

A: The only problem I see is I don't know whether Quinn can do much more to help the offense. Except for Josh Cribbs, the Browns don't have any playmakers. The problem Quinn faced early was that he executed the called plays and didn't adjust. My guess is that he isn't allowed to make many audibles at the line of scrimmage. He needs those to stop defenses from bunching up at the line of scrimmage to stop the running game. Of course, in Cleveland, the running game isn't a threat. The passing game isn't a threat. Regardless, the Browns need to go back to Brady as a changeup.

Q: With the H1N1 seemingly getting worse, what has the NFL and NFLPA done?

Morese in District Heights, Md.

A: The NFL has been proactive with education and has been very reactive to the threat. The Texans, for example, had one case of swine flu, but they isolated tight end Anthony Hill quickly, and no one else was believed to be affected. The Browns had a dozen cases of the flu, but only one player had H1N1, and that crisis seemed to pass without much incident. Players have received a stream of newsletters and e-mails educating them on the proper ways of dealing with the threat of swine flu. Trainers and doctors on teams are in constant contact with each other in an effort to ward off problems. Before the season, the league hired two infectious disease doctors as consultants to help the league through this problem.

Q: John, why does the media continue to ignore the success of Matthew Stafford. When I last checked, Stafford had a higher QB rating than Mark Sanchez, despite playing for a team with far less talent. I think he should be in the thick of the rookie of the year conversation. How do you see it?

Rob in Cedar Rapids, Iowa

A: That's the problem with playing in Detroit, which was 0-16 last season. It's unfair to think Stanford can change the fortunes of the Lions, but he'll get his recognition in time. I still like what Sanchez has done better because he has made the Jets more competitive. Sure, the Jets have more talent, but Sanchez has made an immediate impact. The way things are going, Percy Harvin of the Vikings or Knowshon Moreno of the Broncos might sneak away with offensive rookie honors. Rob, we need you to go to some Lions home games. Some of the fans were on Stafford during the Week 8 loss to the Rams. You need to go there and educate them on the good thing they have.

Q: I've been a Buccaneers fan all my life, and though I have seen some horrible teams, this one seems to be the worst. Usually the media will jump all over a team's misfortune, but honestly no one seems to be doing that to the Buccaneers. I want that. I want everyone in the media to point out my team's flaws and weaknesses to possibly put a little more pressure on the Glazers, Mark Dominik and Raheem Morris. How come no one seems to care about our ineptitude?

Douglas in Gainesville, Fla.

A: The Bucs are so bad that they are an afterthought. I did not like the firings of Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen. Those two guys kept the franchise competitive despite its being in constant transition at quarterback. The Bucs' flaws are now too many to name. Their talent doesn't fit their defensive scheme. The running attack has underachieved. They are going to a rookie quarterback (Josh Freeman) who has about as much chance of winning as Stafford does in Detroit. Douglas, you might not like the...
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