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Matt Stafford unlikely to pull a Matt Ryan

Christopher Harris will be blogging the NFL draft from a fantasy perspective throughout the first round, which begins at 4 p.m. ET today. Check back for updates, especially when the picks and trades start flying fast and furious, and find out where your favorite college stud will rank in the fantasy echelons this season, and where the various diva wide receivers on the block will ply their trades in 2009.

9:57 a.m.: Ladies and gentlemen, the new highest-paid player in the NFL is … Matthew Stafford. OK, the deal that Stafford and the Lions agreed to late Friday night doesn't pay Stafford the most money on a per annum basis, but if you look strictly at guaranteed money, Stafford's $41.75 million tops Albert Haynesworth's $41 million from the Redskins. (Think Haynesworth will want to renegotiate?) Detroit will take the University of Georgia quarterback with the No. 1 pick, making all the ink and pixel dust spent evaluating "What Will The Lions Do???" look awfully silly. (For the record, I called Stafford No. 1 to Detroit on Jan. 1, and I wasn't alone at ESPN Fantasy.)

The only thing that matters for our purposes is: Will Stafford start Week 1 for Detroit? I doubt it. It's possible he pulls a Matt Ryan and looks leaps and bounds better than Daunte Culpepper throughout OTAs and training camp, but it seems likely that Culpepper, who reportedly lost a ton of weight in preparation for a starting gig, will be the sacrificial lamb at the beginning of the Lions' season. Stafford will play in 2009. I just don't think it'll happen before, say, the midway point in the season. For that reason, I'm going to have a very difficult time endorsing either guy as a fantasy pick in '09. But if Stafford does win the job right away, Calvin Johnson at least puts him on the radar screen.

Now, according to a ruling earlier this year by Roger Goodell, the Rams are officially on the clock and can negotiate with any player not named Matt Stafford. The team reportedly bought a plane ticket in Matt Sanchez's name Friday as part of a bluff to try to trade out of the No. 2 spot. It won't work. Expect the Rams to take a tackle, probably Baylor's Jason Smith.