NFL teams
Chad Millman 15y

Behind the Bets

Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers

An amazing thing happened to me on Wednesday. I made the country's first bet on the 2009 NFL season. Even though it's still six months away.

Here's how it happened:

I'm in Vegas for one day connecting with regular BTB contacts and doing research for some stories. Now I know there's a recession going on, but my 7:25 a.m. flight from Newark was packed. Once I landed in Vegas, I had to fight for space on the airport tram. Getting off, there was barely enough room in the terminal for people to shuffle their feet while headed to baggage claim.

When I stopped by the Orleans to see Scooch in the middle of the day, nearly every seat in the sports book was taken and there were lines at a couple of the ticket windows. At the Hilton, more than a few blue hairs sipping beers from their mugs had planted themselves in front of the video slots and the buffet line was 15-minutes long. What in the name of Wayne Newton is happening here? I can barely afford my commute and people out here are dropping dimes like they're worth nickels.

Anyway, while in town, I wanted to get some lessons from the bookmakers about NBA playoff betting. Over lunch, my conversation with Scooch went like this:

Me: "Scooch, how is playoff betting different than the regular season."
Scooch: "It's not."
Me: "Okay, good talk. You going to eat those fries?"

I was hoping to have better luck with Kornegay. When I got to the Hilton I went back to his office and peeked into the sports book's control center, which is only slightly less elaborate than the cockpit on Air Force One. A bank of TV screens line the walls and in the middle of the room is an island of computers where Kornegay and his staff keep track of the money coming in and the numbers posted at the Hilton and around the world.

I was about to ask him, "what kind of NBA action you getting?" when he casually dropped in that the Hilton had just posted numbers for Week 1 of the NFL season—the 2009 NFL season.

You may have heard that the NFL announced its schedule this week. And for the past few seasons Kornegay and his staff have made a habit of posting Week 1 spreads, totals and money lines within days of seeing the lineup. Doesn't matter that they don't know anything about how new free agents are fitting in with their teams. Or that most franchises have no idea who their No. 1 picks are going to be. These guys say, forget about it, let's book some football. They took 15 minutes, came to a consensus on some numbers and threw 'em on the board. "We even conferenced in one of our guys who was on vacation," says Jeff Sherman, a Hilton bookmaker. "He didn't want to miss it."

Of the 16 Week 1 games, the four Hilton bookmakers had only one major disagreement. Their opinions of the Titans-Steelers on the Thursday Night opener ranged from Steelers by three to Steelers by 6.5. So they settled on five. Think about it: Right now, even though we don't know if Kerry Collins is really legit you can already get action on the Steelers minus-5 over the Titans. And, despite the fact Tom Brady's best move since shredding his knee has been walking down the aisle, the Pats are minus-9.5 against the Bills on Monday Night Football.

"It's not like there is a rush of action," says Kornegay. "Most people come in, pick up a sheet with the spreads, and spend a little time doing analysis to see if we made any bad choices."

He's right about the sheets. Stacked against the front wall of the Hilton, under a plaque that reads, "Hilton Handicapper Center," are piles of betting sheets listing each days spreads for every sport, including NBA, NHL, MLB, golf and tennis. Plus there is a sheet for UFC 97 and some futures bets options on events like next year's Super Bowl. Each pile has about 250 individual sheets, and none of them were light by more than a few dozen sheets. Except the 2009, Week 1 NFL spreads. There were two piles for those, and one was so thin you could practically see the wall. A Hilton employee was actually trying to load it back up as I stood there, scanning the lines.

I asked Jeff how much action the NFL games had gotten so far. We went back to the control room, he tapped some super secret code into his mega computer and said, "None."

"None?" I asked in disbelief. These things had been up for two hours and no one had taken a shot.

"Not a one."

"Okay then," I said. "I am about to become the country's first bettor on the 2009 NFL football season."

Immediately, I locked in on the Bears plus-3 against the Packers. It's partly because I'm a homer from Chicago. But also because, in case you haven't heard, the Bears got a really good quarterback this year. And they barely missed the playoffs with a mediocre one. Meanwhile, the Pack haven't exactly improved their cheese curd D.

I walked up to the counter, put down my $22 and asked for the Bears plus-three against the Pack, on Sept 13th, 2009. Linda, the woman punching in my ticket, said, "Oooh the Bears, that's my team. I'm from Chicago."

That's a sign. Things are looking very good for me already.

Got a betting story for Chad? Email him.

Read more Behind the Bets.


Chad Millman is a Senior Deputy Editor at ESPN The Magazine, and once wrote a book called The Odds. His column takes a close look at the culture surrounding the bet.

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