S THE COMBINE OVERRATED?
MCSHAY No. Since the Mike Mamula debacle, how many true combine busts have there been? In the three-year span from 2001 to 2003 (you can't evaluate a draft class for at least three years), I count four: DB Willie Middlebrooks, WR Ashley Lelie, DE Eddie Freeman and QB Kyle Boller. That's out of 769 players.
NFL teams want the 411 on a prospect before they invest big money. It wasn't until this year's combine that coaches learned that Florida State OLB Lawrence Timmons is two inches shorter than his listed 6'3''. They also realized Arizona RB Chris Henry is blessed with tremendous overall physical skills.
GREEN The combine determines who's a good athlete. That's it. And even that can be deceiving. Matt Jones had a great combine, and even though he was converting from QB to receiver, he moved into the first round of the 2005 draft. He might be athletic and fast in shorts, but he doesn't play fast on the field. To find out if a player can play, turn on the tape. Does he play hard? Does he play smart? Does he play with heart? Does he make plays? The combine can't answer those questions.
WHICH POSITION IS SAFEST TO DRAFT IN THE FIRST ROUND?
TODD MCSHAY Linebacker. Here's a look at how three of last year's top picks did: A.J. Hawk (Packers) and Ernie Sims (Lions) led their teams in tackles, and Kamerion Wimbley (Browns) finished tied for 11th in sacks in the NFL with 11. The 2005 class included DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Thomas Davis and Derrick Johnson. And 2004? Jonathan Vilma and D.J. Williams. That bodes well for this year's top prospects: Patrick Willis, Paul Posluszny and Lawrence Timmons.
JEREMY GREEN Receiver. It's one of the few positions at which a player can just go out and play. A first-round wideout is bound to be a gifted athlete who will be able to walk onto the field and prove it from the first practice. Plus, when he doesn't have the ball in his hands, he opens up the field.
WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE A HIGH-SECONDROUNDER OR MULTIPLE MIDROUND PICKS?
MCSHAY My initial instinct was to say multiple picks. Then I did some research. There has been tremendous value found high in the second round the past few years (Texans LB DeMeco Ryans, Eagles WR Reggie Brown, Chargers DT Igor Olshansky). Also, the percentage of starters from the second round compared with the following three rounds is substantially higher.
GREEN I still say multiple picks. A high-second-rounder is usually a player who slipped out of the first for a reason. Besides, the draft isn't about drafting the best player, it's about drafting the best player who fits your system. With multiple picks, you have more chances to find the right piece.
SHOULD COACHES HAVE A SAY IN THE DRAFT PROCESS?
MCSHAY Area scouts, college scouting directors and GMs spend 15-plus months gathering and processing information on a draft prospect. Meanwhile, coaches are coaching, which means they're usually getting their first look at a prospect at the combine. Generally speaking, that's why I've always felt that although a coach's input should be a welcome part of the evaluation process, it shouldn't trump that of the scouting department.
GREEN I worked for the Browns in the Butch Davis era, when the coaches were way too heavily involved. But if you have a coaching staff that knows how to evaluate talent, you should take advantage. It's important for team chemistry, because in reality, no GM wants to draft a player his coach doesn't like, and no head coach wants a player his position coach doesn't like. Pittsburgh did this well with Bill Cowher. He had the final say, but he carefully weighed the opinion of head of football ops Kevin Colbert before pulling the trigger. In Baltimore, Ozzie Newsome makes the final call, but he takes into account how Brian Billick feels about each selection. The best process is one in which there is dialogue between coach and GM.
DO YOU TAKE A PASS-RUSHING DE OR A SHUTDOWN CORNER?
MCSHAY Take the DE. Champ Bailey is arguably the NFL's premier corner, yet the Broncos' pass D ranked 21st last season. Meanwhile, of the league leaders in sacks—Shawne Merriman (17), Aaron Kampman (15.5), Aaron Schobel (14), Jason Taylor (13.5), Leonard Little, Julius Peppers and Trevor Pryce (13 each)—the only one whose passing D didn't finish in the NFL's top half was Kampman's, and the Packers ranked 17th.
GREEN I prefer a corner; being a top pass-rusher in college doesn't always translate. It took Mario Williams half a season to figure out he can't just run around NFL left tackles. Ends have to learn to be technicians, and that takes time, if it comes at all. Cornerbacks who play man coverage in college tend to be able to do it in the NFL, too.