ESPN's Michael Smith reported Wednesday that Marshawn Lynch will be suspended for the first three games of 2009 because of a Feb. 11 arrest on misdemeanor gun charges. It was Lynch's second trouble with police in less than a year; he was cited for striking a woman with his car in downtown Buffalo and driving away from the scene in May.
Because reports that Lynch would be suspended had leaked out of the commissioner's office over the past couple months, I had already baked the possibility of a suspension into my running back ranks. I had Lynch listed at No. 16 among fantasy rushers before Wednesday's news. Based on talent and opportunity -- and the assumption that opposing defenses won't be able to key on stopping the run quite as much with Terrell Owens in Buffalo -- that would be a low ranking for Lynch if he was definitely slated to play a full 16-game season. After all, he has topped 1,000 yards rushing in both of his NFL seasons, has scored 16 all-purpose touchdowns and in 2008 became more of a factor in the passing game with 47 receptions, tying him for ninth in the league among running backs. So the question is, now that we know the terms of the suspension, should I drop Lynch even lower?
I tend to think not. I'm remembering Brandon Marshall's suspension from the 2008 season; it was all doom and gloom when the commissioner informed the Broncos that Marshall would be suspended for three games because of his legal transgressions. But then Marshall filed an appeal, and the suspension was reduced to a single game. Marshall subsequently came out like gangbusters in Week 2, making all the sturm und drang over his wide receiver ranking look silly. Michael Smith says he expects Lynch to appeal, and I have to believe Lynch will get at least a game, if not two, taken off his penalty. Three games is perhaps a bit overly harsh, and leaves wiggle room for Roger Goodell's office to reduce the penalty yet still get the point across to Lynch. The good news for fantasy owners is that we should know the result of Lynch's appeal sometime this summer. If it winds up staying at three games, then yes, we'll have to consider dropping Lynch out of the running back top 20.
In Lynch's absence, Fred Jackson figures to get one or two starts, and more than ever should be considered a definite handcuff for Lynch's fantasy owners. Jackson ran for 571 yards and three scores on 130 carries last year, and caught 37 passes for another 317 yards, proving he's one of the most valuable backups in fantasy. Considering he's now the team's Week 1 starter, he deserves to be included in the top 35 among all fantasy backs for 2009.