With only 10 days remaining until the April 17 deadline for signing restricted free agents to offer sheets, no veterans in the three-year category have changed teams this spring.
And it could be that, by the end of free agency, not a single one does.
It would mark the first time since the current free-agency system was implemented in 1993 that no restricted free agents switched franchises. Last year, three restricted players changed teams. Over the past three springs, 11 restricted players moved on to new clubs.
In the 16 previous years of free agency, 62 restricted players, nearly four per season, changed teams. In only four of those 16 years did fewer than three restricted veterans switch clubs.
The movement of restricted free agents is getting tougher, said Derrick Fox, the agent for Green Bay defensive back Jarrett Bush, who signed a three-year, $4.5 million offer sheet with Tennessee a few weeks ago, only to have it matched by the Packers.
"It's pretty much a win-win situation, though, for the player," Fox said. "I told [Bush] to take the bird in the hand from the Titans, rather than have two in the bush, pardon the pun. But either way, whether the Packers matched the deal or didn't, he was still going to make his money. Unless the contract is really [exorbitant], it seems that most teams just match the offer [sheet]."
So far, four restricted players have signed offer sheets this spring, and all were matched by their incumbent teams.
In addition to Bush, Houston wide receiver David Anderson (with Denver, $4.5 million for three years), New York Jets defensive back Abram Elam (with Cleveland, $1.5 million for one year), and Minnesota fullback Naufahu Tahi (with Cincinnati, $1.4 million for one year) signed offer sheets with new franchises. All stayed put, however, when their current teams matched the offer sheets and assumed the new contract negotiated by the other clubs.
A combination of components made the four players susceptible to offer sheets from other teams: All four received the lowest possible offers, $1.01 million, on the one-year tenders from their current teams. Of the four, only Anderson, a seventh-round draft pick in 2006, carried a compensatory price tag; the others all entered the league as undrafted free agents, meaning their old teams were owed no draft-pick compensation. The oldest of the four was 28, and all had their best football years ahead.
Nineteen other restricted free agents have re-signed with their original teams, further diluting the player pool.
Many of the remaining restricted free agents are tendered at levels that require little or no draft-pick compensation. So the original team is more likely to match an offer sheet.
Not counting Houston defensive end Earl Cochran, whose tender was rescinded, making him a total free agent, there were 54 restricted veterans. Twenty-seven of those players were tendered at the lowest possible level, meaning their current teams would only be owed compensation commensurate to the rounds in which those players were originally drafted. So if a player entered the NFL as an undrafted college free agent, and he received the low tender, he would require no compensation.
Just one player, New Orleans guard Jahri Evans, received the highest-level tender of $2.792 million, with compensation of first- and third-round draft choices. Three restricted free agents -- offensive tackles Willie Colon of Pittsburgh and Donald Penn of Tampa Bay, along with Houston TE Owen Daniels -- received the second-highest tender of $2.198 million and carried first-round compensation. But there are 23 restricted free agents (tender level: $1.545 million) who require second-round compensation. And 28 players were "over-tendered," meaning they received offers higher than their original draft levels.
The last two factors, certainly the second-round tenders, represent the primary reasons that no restricted players have changed teams this year. Before the second-round tender was introduced in 2007, there were only three levels for teams to retain a right of first refusal. Most teams, reluctant to offer a tender at the first-round or first- and third-round levels, settled for the lowest-level offer, and that made players susceptible to offer sheets.
With draft picks being so valuable these days, teams were averse to perhaps sacrificing a second-rounder to exercise an offer sheet.
The implementation of the second-round tender provided teams a costly but attractive alternative to the first-round level, and served to ward off some potential suitors.
The Dallas Cowboys are a prime example. Dallas has four restricted free agents, and all of them originally entered the NFL as undrafted players. But the Cowboys used a second-round tender for all four, and none of them -- wide receivers Miles Austin and Sam Hurd, defensive end Stephen Bowen and guard Cory Procter -- has received an offer so far.
"It's been a big factor [in reducing signings]," said Minnesota general manager Rick Spielman after matching the Tahi offer sheet. "Before, you had to make a choice, and there was no in-between. You either tendered a guy at the low-level or, the next best thing, at the first-round [level]. The second-round tender gave teams a better choice and scared off some clubs that otherwise might have signed some [restricted] players."
Senior writer Len Pasquarelli covers the NFL for ESPN.com.