NFL teams
17y

One Step Closer

Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts

NFC
BEARS
WHO TO WATCH
Olin Kreutz protects Rex Grossman. Which is why he was upset recently when asked about his QB's admitting he didn't prepare before the Bears' 26-7 season-finale loss to the Packers. "Rex is a grown man," Kreutz said. "He doesn't need me telling him what to do." Not that Kreutz wouldn't give his QB an earful behind closed doors. This is, after all, the player who was ordered to attend anger management sessions after breaking teammate Fred Miller's jaw in November 2005. Still, as a six-time Pro Bowler in nine seasons, Kreutz is someone the Bears would rather practice with than play against. To watch the 6'2'', 292-pound vet is to witness a clinic on leverage. And teammates and coaches admit that, with a sketchy QB, Kreutz is the one player on O they can't lose. "He doesn't tell guys what to do," says Bears O-line coach Harry Hiestand.
"He just makes suggestions." And they'd better listen.
-DAN GALVIN

Preseason odds of winning the NFC title:
7-1 , near the early line on Will Ferrell's nabbing a Best Actor Oscar for Stranger Than Fiction.

BIG NUMBER
5
Good: Rex Grossman had seven games with a passer rating of 100 or better this season. Bad: His five games with a rating of 40 or worse led the league. That's a feat of inconsistency matched by one other postmerger QB: Doug Flutie, whose rating with the Chargers in 2001 topped 100 five times and dipped below 40 five others.

UNKNOWN OBSTACLE
Dueling backs Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson have had a chilly relationship. Jones rushed for 945 yards during the first 11 games while Benson recovered from a shoulder injury. But once healthy, Benson gained more yards than Jones (335 to 265) and had more carries per game (13.6 to 12.2) in December. Now they're a nice dual threat for the playoffs, as long as they keep their cool.

SAINTS
WHO TO WATCH
The celebration after the Saints' divisional playoff win over the Eagles was in full force, but defensive end Will Smith was quietly making his way out of the Superdome. Then he felt a tug on his sweatshirt. It was Saints owner Tom Benson's wife, Gayle, who reached up on her tip-toes to give Smith a congratulatory peck on the cheek. It was the first time all night that someone inside the building had stopped him.

Drafted 18th overall out of Ohio State in 2004, the 6'3'', 282-pound Smith earned a trip to the Pro Bowl this season, his first as a full-time starter. With 4.7 speed and an explosive first step off the corner, Smith has piled up 26.5 sacks—10.5 this season—in 27 pro starts. But it's his dignified leadership that has come to symbolize the Saints' resurgence. "We're more than a feel-good story," says Smith. "We're fighting for the Super Bowl."
In other words, pucker up, Chicago.
-DAVID FLEMING

Preseason odds of winning the NFC title:
40-1 , nearly the same odds of winning a prize in Powerball.

BIG NUMBER
4.8
Don't expect the return of DT Hollis Thomas to cure the Saints run D. New Orleans allowed fewer yards per carry (4.8) during his fourgame suspension in December than in its first 12 games (5.0).

UNKNOWN OBSTACLE
There's only one small problem with the Saints' NFC title game experience: They don't have any. In 40 years as a franchise, they'd never advanced this deep. In fact, last week's win over the Eagles was just their second playoff victory ever. Yes, ever. And while Coach of the Year Sean Payton was the Giants O-coordinator when they lost Super Bowl XXXV, only four of his Saints starters (none on offense) have ever gone this far in the postseason.

BLOW IT UP: DEUCE MCALLISTER VS. BEARS RUN D
Deuce McAllister is back in vintage form, and that means big trouble for the Bears. Much like the Eagles, Chicago relies heavily on upfield pressure and undersized personnel, which can be exploited by Deuce's between-the-tackles running.

Think the Bears should align safety Todd Johnson in the box on running downs? If only it were that easy. Sean Payton passes on first down and runs out of four-wide-receiver sets. And because the Saints have rare personnel flexibility and try just about anything regardless of alignment or down or distance, they give D's few keys to read.

With exceptionally gifted linebackers and iffy cornerback depth, Chicago would be wise to keep its base Cover 2 defense on the field even when the Saints line Reggie Bush in the slot in three-receiver sets. In these situations, the Bears will be more vulnerable to mismatches without a nickelback, but their two-deep shell will help protect them against the long ball while giving them a best-case personnel package against Deuce.

Of course, the Bears have struggled to create pressure in recent weeks (the loss of defensive tackle Tommie Harris really hurt), so they might also need to risk attacking the line of scrimmage occasionally with an extra defender or two. The key: gap discipline. The Bears should avoid stunts, and they must be wary of bootlegs, cutbacks and misdirection on the back side (along with ball fakes) that can spring McAllister up the middle. Keeping close tabs on Deuce doesn't guarantee you'll stop him, but it's an awfully important first step.
-JASON LANGENDORF, SCOUTS INC.

AFC
PATRIOTS
WHO TO WATCH
The Pats' legacy at tight end goes back through Ben Coates all the way to Matt Hasselbeck's dad, Don, and Russ Francis. Now it continues through Benjamin Watson and Daniel Graham, former firstrounders who complement each other perfectly in the team's frequent two-tight-end sets. Watson is Tom Brady's favorite crunch-time target. Graham ensures that the two have plenty of time to connect. Says Watson: "Dan tries to kill people." Watson and Graham live about 100 yards from each other and share everything from Celts tix to church to Chinese eats. They're also sharing the grooming of the next potential great Pats tight end, rookie David Thomas, who made a spectacular diving TD catch in New England's division-clinching win over the Jags on Dec. 24. Says Graham: "You know the tight end always will be a big part of the offense."

Especially when it counts.
-LUKE CYPHERS

Preseason odds of winning the AFC title:
7-2 , the same as Hillary Clinton's for winning the presidency in 2008.

BIG NUMBER
0
Not one Pat ranked among the NFL's top 30 in regularseason receiving yards, yet Brady has made weapons out of Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney. The two have combined for 337 yards and 2 TDs in the postseason.

UNKNOWN OBSTACLE
The Pats won three titles with the same script: Nobody, not even Corey Dillon, says nothin'. But now the script's been flipped. When the Pats moved Deion Branch to Seattle, Brady made his disquiet unquiet. And just before their AFC wildcard game, cornerback Asante Samuel sounded off about being underpaid. Can the Pats keep their eyes on the prize with their mouths open?

COLTS
WHO TO WATCH
When it comes to pregame routines, Rob Morris is no Ray Lewis. "If I did that dancing, I'd be exhausted," the Colts' 32-year-old linebacker said after Indy's 15-6 playoff win at Baltimore. Instead, Morris listens to Mozart's Don Giovanni. "Rob's the most relaxed guy I've met," says Colts LB Keith O'Neil. Chalk it up to liking his new job.

After serving as a starting 'backer from 2001 through 2004, Morris, a former first-round pick out of BYU, was demoted last season in favor of Gary Brackett. But after Jacksonville racked up 375 rushing yards against Indy on Dec. 10, the Colts were desperate. Enter No. 94 on the strong side. Since Morris became a starter, Indy's rush D has allowed 56.3 fewer rush yards per game. Meanwhile, the 6'2'', 243-pounder had a team-high 10 stops against the Ravens. Says Cato June: "He has no wasted movement."

Kind of like Mozart.
-EDDIE MATZ

Preseason odds of winning the AFC title:
2-1 , which are also the odds that Angelina Jolie's next child will be adopted.

BIG NUMBER
3
Peyton Manning has had three game-winning drives this season. He had just one in '05, so when Indy was down late against the Steelers in the playoffs, "we didn't know how to handle it," says wideout Aaron Moorehead. That's changed.

UNKNOWN OBSTACLE
The Colts have heard it over and over: Can they win it all? Can they even make it to the Super Bowl? No team is under more pressure, and under that stress the Colts easily can psych themselves out—playing tight, trying not to make mistakes—instead of cutting loose. That's why Peyton Manning says the Colts have to give the postseason "the respect it deserves, but don't overdo it."

BLOW IT UP: PEYTON MANNING VS. BILL BELICHICK
Used to be Bill Belichick tortured Peyton Manning, his device of choice being the 3-4 pressure defense. But the tone of the two most recent Colts-Patriots matchups has been startlingly different. After going 0—7 in Foxboro to begin his career, Manning has piled up 647 yards and 5 TDs in two key regular-season road wins the past two years, including a 27-20 win on Nov. 5. In both games, he showed a newfound willingness to check down to his backs and tight ends when deep routes were covered. That's a critical development, because the Pats are ultraconservative with their safeties—especially so if Rodney Harrison hasn't returned from his knee injury—and highly averse to risking big plays.

So now it's Belichick who must adjust to Manning. With Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel aging and his linebacker depth not what it used to be, Belichick might want to dust off one of his old five-linebacker groupings or use an extra defensive back often. The Pats will need as many rangy defenders as possible working in zone coverage, both to squeeze Manning's passing windows and to make plays on his timing routes to Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.

Sure, Manning likely would try to take advantage of a smaller Patriots lineup with his hurry-up offense and audibles. But New England's stout front three can clog up the Colts' zone-blocking scheme and contain Joseph Addai. Which would leave Manning exactly where Belichick wants him: gunning for his life.
-J.L.

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