1. If having a veteran QB matters so much, why does Ben Roethlisberger have a ring and Matt Hasselbeck doesn't?
Because coaches play it safe in the Big One. During the past 10 Super Bowls, QBs have averaged just 236 passing yards per game. Four times, the winning signal-caller threw for less than 160 yards (including Tom Brady in his first Super Bowl and Big Ben last year). Another factor: the ignorance of youth. Getting there in your first or second year as a starter—as Roethlisberger, Brady and Kurt Warner did—makes it a lot easier to play loose, because you think you'll get back someday. Dan Marino admitted as much after leading the Dolphins to the Super Bowl following his second season.
For Peyton Manning, who needed nine years to reach the title game, it's safe to say that this will be more than just another Sunday. Translation: There's good reason to think he'll be anxious. Archie's boy must also overcome this bad bit of karma: The last QB drafted No. 1 overall to start for the winning Super Bowl team was John Elway, eight seasons ago.
Meanwhile, Rex Grossman has proven he's got no problem playing loose, even when he stinks. That's why the Bears will keep him on the same tight leash that limited him to 144 passing yards in the NFC championship. "Football is a total team sport," says Steelers cornerback Ike Taylor, who had Pittsburgh's only pick in Super Bowl XL. "We had a great defense, a great offensive line, two good running backs and strong receivers to help our young quarterback out"
Sounds like an NFC team we know.
ADVANTAGE: BEARS
-EDDIE MATZ
2. If every game counts, why don't teams with the best regular-season records dominate the Big Game?
Record, schmecord."We laughed at teams with better records than us," says Roger Craig, whose 49ers started off 6—5 in 1988 before going on to win Super Bowl XXIII.
In fact, since 1989, just eight of 18 champs have had more regular-season W's than their opponent. A better predictor of big game success is who has more Pythagorean wins. Yes, someone found a way to make high school math matter. Naturally, it was Bill James, who devised a formula for baseball wins based not on games, but on the difference between a team's runs scored and runs allowed.
In 1994, a stats guru named Daryl Morey (now the Rockets assistant GM) applied James' formula to NFL teams, using points scored (PS) and allowed (PA). In 2000, the Ravens had 12 regular-season wins (tied for second), but 13.5 Pythagorean wins (first). In 2004, the Pats had 14 actual W's (second) and 12.4 Pythag W's (first). Since '89, the team that has finished first or second in Pythagorean wins has won 16 of 18 titles. So where do this year's participants rank? Check out the chart below:
ADVANTAGE: BEARS
-AARON SCHATZ, FOOTBALLOUTSIDERS.COM
3. If teams rely on top-flight running backs, why is Antowain Smith a two-time champ?
The Bears would be a virtual lock to win the Super Bowl—if only perennial Pro Bowler Edgerrin James were still a Colt. That's right. Recent history tells us you don't need a top tailback to bring home Lombardi. In fact, of late it's been a precursor to losing on Super Sunday. Since 2001—when New England's Antowain Smith outgained Marshall Faulk—the team that won the ring has usually featured the less-heralded back. In 2002, Tampa's Michael Pittman bested Raider Charlie Garner. The next year, Smith helped the Pats past Carolina's Stephen Davis. And last year, Willie Parker's 9.3 yards per carry on Super Sunday nearly doubled regularseason MVP Shaun Alexander's 4.8 ypc. "Championships are built on defense, not running backs," says Bucs linebacker Shelton Quarles. "You just need a back who plays hard and gets the job done." That's good news for Indy, whose Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes fit that bill. But wait—so do Chicago's Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
-SETH WICKERSHAM
4. If drawing first blood matters, why isn't there a Lombardi Trophy at the Linc?
Much as it pains us, here's an analogy that geeks who believe scoring first matters can relate to: If this stat were a character from Lord of the Rings, it would be Gollum. You think that creepy lizard/dwarf is there to guide you. But in the end he'll bite you, and you'll lose your jewelry in a lava pit.
Consider this: In 30 of the past 40 Super Bowls, the team that scored secondwent on to win; in eight of the past nine—including the two most recent games—the teams that celebrated first weren't celebrating last; and in three of the biggest blowouts of all time (SB XXVII: Dallas 52, Buffalo 17; SB XXII: Washington 42, Denver 10; SB XX: Chicago 46, New England 10) the loser got an early jump.
Both the Colts and the Bears won eight times this season after scoring first. But Indy had seven regular-season come-from-behind W's (and one 18-point comeback against the Pats in the AFC title game), compared to Chicago's six. Besides, early mo matters less in the Super Bowl. Everyone is so amped, that first score helps both teams relax, reminding them they're in a game, not a pageant. "In the end," says Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner, "the game is about who scores most, not first."
Spoken like a true lord of the ring. Still …
ADVANTAGE: COLTS
-DAVID FLEMING
5. If the Super Bowl is so boring, why are ratings so strong?
To be read as if mimicking Jim Mora's infamous "Playoffs?" rant as Colts coach (and beer pitchman) .Boring? Don't talk about the Super Bowl being boring. Boring? Are you kidding me? Did you know that four of the past seven games—beginning with Kevin Dyson and the Titans falling one-yard short against the Rams in Super Bowl XXXIV—have been decided by a touchdown or less? Boring? I'm just hoping our weak tickers can make it through another game! "A Super Bowl is never boring" says Ike Taylor. "I was so burnt out afterward that I just went back to the hotel and slept" Boring? In the parity era Super Bowls have become more compelling while the commercials have slipped. Last year, not a single spot was nominated for a Clio, the ad biz's version of the Oscar. So there. "This is America's sport" says Bears tackle Fred Miller. "The Super Bowl is the main stage" Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't know diddly-poo.
ADVANTAGE:FANS
-D.F.