NFL teams
Seth Wickersham, ESPN Senior Writer 9y

Super Bowl Red Zone Alert

This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's Feb. 2 Music Issue. Subscribe today!

POOR BRANDON BOSTICK. The Packers tight end will have to spend the offseason staving off permanent goathood after allowing Seattle's onside kick to ricochet off his face mask near the end of the NFC championship game. But if you want the real reason the Seahawks were able to pull off their miracle comeback, look to their play inside the 20: Twice in the first quarter, the Packers drove to the Seattle 1-yard line, and twice the Packers settled for field goals. In the second half, Pete Carroll made the Packers pay, using equal parts moxie and creativity. He called a fake field goal from the 19, 
then deployed a slick read-option late in the fourth that let Russell Wilson sprint untouched into the end zone from a yard out. One team kicked field goals in the red zone. One scored touchdowns.

That's precisely why Bill Belichick, when asked what statistics matter most, has never cited QBR or DVOA or any other flashy metric that promises to reveal all of football's mysteries. No, Belichick always cites red zone efficiency -- how often his teams score or stop the opponent in those boring 20 yards that commentators love 
to drone on about, reminding you it's important to score touchdowns like a dentist reminds you to floss.

But the Hoodie is right -- even in ways most of us don't realize. Thanks to the league's recent rule changes, red zone play is more important than ever. It's where the most exotic plays and packages are born, where the game becomes a test of the mind as much as of will. It's one of the major reasons the Patriots and Seahawks will play in Super Bowl XLIX -- and it will be one of the major factors in who wins. After all, every Lombardi winner this decade -- except the (cough, cough) 9-7 Giants in 2011 -- has finished in the top six in red zone efficiency in offense or defense. "Teams will move the ball," says Seahawks linebacker K.J. Wright. "It's all about keeping them out of the end zone when they're close." Wright's team, after all, allowed only one touchdown over the final three weeks of the season and will face a Patriots offense that has scored nine TDs on its 10 red zone trips in the playoffs.

It's no secret that the NFL has legislated offense over the past few years by emphasizing illegal contact calls. There's only so much handcuffed defenses can do, and the risk of allowing a big play no longer justifies tightly contesting every midfield yard. It's better to bend and save your best schemes for inside the 20, where the geometry of the field changes and the back of the end zone serves as a 12th defender. "There's very little margin for error," Belichick says.

Take note, Wilson: Few produce more creative red zone defenses than Belichick. The Patriots will disguise coverages and try to bait Wilson into throwing at shutdown corner Darrelle Revis. Wilson (13 TDs, 1 INT in the red zone in 2014) loves quick plays like a pass or run off the read-option, but Belichick will try to force him to think -- a cardinal sin down close. Against the Dolphins in December, for example, the Patriots (tied for sixth in the NFL in defensive red zone efficiency) crowded the line of scrimmage with seven defenders, showing blitz (see diagram). But at the snap, they rushed only three, blanketing the end zone with eight defenders -- anywhere else on the field, Miami could have run deep routes to overextend the Patriots' coverage. Thanks to pre-snap confusion, defensive end Chandler Jones was able to rush free for a strip sack. Of course, you need disciplined players like Jones to actually execute. "Things happen real fast down there," Revis says. "So you've got to be technically sound."

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots' red zone offense (ranked ninth, 58 percent touchdowns) can be summed up in two words: Rob Gronkowski. The Seahawks are the rare team that plays the same ruthless man-to-man coverage in the red zone that it does on the rest of the field. And how they choose to cover Gronk will be the most important Super Bowl matchup. (Please, football gods, let it be Richard Sherman.) The Patriots know that defenses key on their big tight end (nine red zone TDs, second among receivers and tight ends), so they design plays not only to get him the ball but to clear space for others. At the 5-yard line in a game against the Broncos in November, for instance, Gronk ran a quick crossing route (see diagram, previous page). Three Broncos covered him. Brady read it immediately -- he often says that accuracy in the red zone is about decisiveness as much as technique -- and hit running back Shane Vereen, who was wide open in the middle of the field on a hook route. "It's easy for defenses to forget the other guys on our offense," Vereen says. "So I think that lets you be creative and run quick routes."

That's why both the Seahawks and Patriots will have to prepare for something more difficult than simply deciding who's going to cover Gronk and who will account for Marshawn Lynch. Yes, precise decision-making will be crucial for Wilson, and the Patriots' receivers will have to be ready to deal with Seattle's physicality. But both teams will also have to prepare for the type of surprise that Seattle called against the Eagles in Week 14 (see diagram). Wilson faked a handoff to Lynch, rolled right and then attempted the one throw quarterbacks are taught never to try -- across the field -- but Lynch was wide open for an easy score. It was the kind of counterintuitive play -- just like the Patriots' red zone TD pass to left tackle Nate Solder in the AFC title game -- that didn't appear on any scouting report. And odds are, plays like those won't be run again. But come Super Bowl Sunday, there will be something equally inventive, something that nobody's seen before. The only certainty is that whichever team wins, you won't have to dig deep into stats to learn why.


WHERE TO THROW
The Seahawks threw just 57 times in the red zone during the regular season (21st overall). So while passing might not be their first choice, Russell Wilson would be foolish not to toss a few balls outside the numbers on the right, where the Patriots allowed eight TDs (tied for second most). Tom Brady, meanwhile, had an NFL-high 25 red zone TDs, 68 percent of which came on throws to the left, the highest rate in the NFL. But Pats, beware: Seattle's D proved stingy on that side, allowing only four scores (tied for fourth fewest).


TO BLITZ OR NOT TO BLITZ
Hey, Belichick, here's a tip: Up your blitzing in the red zone. The Pats ranked 23rd in red zone blitz percentage in 2014 (22.9 percent), but consider: The Seahawks' offense had the NFL's third-worst red zone QBR when defenses brought the heat. Seattle's D, 27th in blitz rate, should be aggressive too; it ranked 31st in opponent QBR with four or fewer rushers.


WHAT TO DO ON THIRD DOWN
Seattle, the 27th-ranked third-down offense inside the 20, would be wise to run vs. the Pats' defense, which allowed a 50 percent conversion rate (16th). Tom Brady & Co. should mostly abandon the run against Seattle's stout defense, which gave up a first down on only 18 percent of third-down runs in the red zone.

All numbers courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information; Regular-Season stats only.

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