There is no disputing the value of a great NFL quarterback, so if you're determined to emphasize the "V" in MVP discussions, a defensive player might never prevail. None has won MVP honors since Lawrence Taylor in 1986, but if the streak does not end this season, when will it? The case for Houston Texans defensive lineman J.J. Watt is already strong, and it could get a lot stronger in Week 17.
Watt emerged from the Texans' dominating victory over Baltimore as a 4-1 betting choice behind only Aaron Rodgers, and if Week 17 goes just so, I'd have a hard time supporting anyone else.
For those who aren't so sure, here's a Watt-for-MVP scenario to consider amid all the playoff permutations swirling around the league: Let's say Watt leads the Houston Texans to a 9-7 record while Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers struggle against the Detroit Lions. It's not a far-fetched scenario, as the Lions held the Packers to seven points earlier this season. The Texans, meanwhile, have a shot at going from first in the draft order to the playoffs -- without a viable quarterback and without Jadeveon Clowney, the player they picked first overall. Watt has been the driving force.
When I polled three high-profile NFL players for MVP thoughts recently, the two defensive ones said they thought Watt should win it. The offensive player went with Rodgers, then Watt -- another indication that Watt is very much alive in this discussion. I've got him No. 1 on my MVP watch list heading into the final weekend of the regular season. Oddsmakers have Rodgers as the favorite, but he's third on my list for reasons we'll explore below.
1. J.J. Watt, DL, Houston Texans
Bovada.lv odds: 4-1
Watt
Watt has 17.5 sacks, 9 batted passes, 1 interception, 3 forced fumbles, 2 touchdowns on defense and 3 touchdowns on offense. His Pro Football Focus grade is 101.1. Sheldon Richardson is next among 3-4 defensive ends with a 35.1 grade, followed by Fletcher Cox at 28.2. That provides some context for Watt's dominance. He is the rare player who dominates whether he's lined up inside or out along the defensive front.