There are probably few fans excited for Thursday night's matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars from a pure football-watching standpoint. There are no playoff implications when two 2-12 teams face off. But for NFL draftniks and fans of the two teams in question, this game is huge, because the result will go a long way toward determining the selection order at the top of the 2015 NFL draft.
With two weeks left, we wanted to take an updated look at the chances of the NFL's worst teams securing the No. 1 overall selection. Things have changed dramatically since Oakland was in the driver's seat a month ago. Oakland, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Tennessee are now all tied with 2-12 records, which means that the strength of schedule tiebreaker is likely to play a huge role.
However, it's not enough to look at the strength of schedule for each team so far, because the final strength of schedule that will break ties in draft order also will incorporate each team's Week 16 and 17 opponents. That's an extra wrinkle for this game between Jacksonville and Tennessee. One of these teams will go to 2-13 and get to lower its strength of schedule by adding in a 3-12 team. (Strength of schedule also will change because of what each team's past opponents do in the final two weeks, although that's a smaller issue.)
Below, I've listed all six teams currently sitting at 2-12 or 3-11, along with how often in our simulations this team ends up with the No. 1 overall pick, and how often it ends up with a top-three pick. I've also listed each team's remaining games, current strength of schedule and projected final strength of schedule, based on the mean projected wins of all 16 opponents including the two still unplayed.
So who will "earn" the No. 1 pick?