One of the strange parts of the 2014 season has been the extreme margins of victory. Last year, 48 percent of the games were decided by seven points or fewer. This year, close games have fallen to 38.75 percent, while 20-plus-point blowouts are at a 26.25 percent pace.
And if the oddsmakers are correct, this NFL weekend could feature a number of one-sided affairs.
Seven of the 13 games Sunday have a spread of a touchdown or more, with several in the double digits. Indianapolis is a 14-point favorite against Jacksonville. The Philadelphia Eagles are favored by 10.5 at home versus Tennessee. Green Bay is a 10-point pick over Minnesota, and the San Francisco 49ers are nine-point favorites over Washington.
Combine that with the fact that several matchups feature teams with records at least three games better than their opponents' records, and "Weak" 12 could be rife with crazy upsets or predictable blowouts.
Here are the top storylines for Week 12.
1. Lack of respect for the Cardinals: Even though Arizona sits three games ahead of Seattle, Vegas has the Seahawks as 6.5-point favorites over the 9-1 Cardinals. The Seahawks' home-field advantage is one reason, and the QB change from Carson Palmer to Drew Stanton is another. Still, the odds alone offer Bruce Arians a motivating tool for his players. In some ways, the Cardinals and Seahawks have swapped roles from 2013. A year ago, the Seahawks were 9-1, had a stifling defense that allowed only 15.9 points a game and were plus-seven in turnover differential. This season, the Cardinals are 9-1, plus-11 in turnover differential and are yielding 17.6 points a contest.
But the experts do their due diligence in assigning odds and realize the Cardinals could have problems because of injuries. Though Stanton is 3-1 as a fill-in, he has the lowest completion percentage in the league (53.6) and has a tendency to throw almost exclusively to his right (89.5 percent of the time). If that's the case Sunday, he'll be throwing at Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman, who has had only 23 passes completed against him through 10 games. The other problem is the health of wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who has a second-degree MCL sprain. Arians said Fitzgerald will play, but his ability to make cuts will be tough with that type of injury. If the Seahawks have any hopes of catching the Cardinals or staying in the wild-card hunt, they have to win this game.
2. Location, location, location: Over the next two weeks, the New England Patriots complete their four-game tour of the NFC North, having already beaten Chicago and Minnesota. The Patriots have a comfortable two-game lead in the AFC East, but the Patriots will play a huge role in the NFC North race.
New England hosts the Detroit Lions on Sunday and then travels to Green Bay, where Aaron Rodgers and Co. have outscored their past four opponents 128-9 in the first half alone.
Despite playing on the road Sunday in one of the toughest places to win, the Lions have very little complaints about the 2014 schedule. Only four of their first 10 games have been against teams .500 or better. After this game, the only remaining winning team they face down the stretch is Green Bay in Week 17. Here's the problem: The Lions' offense hasn't excelled against plus-.500 teams, averaging only 14.75 points while the team went 2-2. And three of those games were at home. If the Lions can't score against the Patriots, they are in real trouble. The Patriots are averaging 32.3 points and have the ability to put up 50 with ease. The Lions can't afford to lose this game and possibly have to go to Lambeau in Week 17 to win the division.
3. Broncos happy to be home: Each year, the NFL tries to minimize the number of three-game road trips teams must endure. Only four teams have the dreaded three-game road schedule. Tampa Bay just completed one and went 1-2, the St. Louis Rams went 2-1 in their recently completed three-game road swing and the Bengals started theirs last Sunday with a win in New Orleans.
For the Broncos, their three-game road trip was costly. Not only did they lose to New England and St. Louis, but Peyton Manning lost a good chunk of his offensive weapons. Montee Ball reinjured his groin. Ronnie Hillman will miss time with a foot injury. Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders suffered a concussion, and tight end Julius Thomas hurt his ankle. Not having Sanders and Thomas in the lineup removes 19 touchdown passes and 62.9 percent of Manning's completions this season.
The Broncos host a Miami Dolphins team that has done well against good quarterbacks. Philip Rivers, Tom Brady and Rodgers completed only 57 percent or fewer of their attempts against the Dolphins.
4. A Lovie affair: Lovie Smith makes what should be an emotional return to Soldier Field on Sunday. Smith won 81 regular-season games and six playoff contests as Bears head coach. But seeing Smith on the opposing sideline, despite his 2-8 mark with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, will make Bears fans wonder if the organization was right in letting him go.
Despite his brilliant offensive mind, second-year coach Marc Trestman is being called out by Bears fans frustrated with the team's 4-6 record. The defense gave up 106 points in consecutive losses to New England and Green Bay, and fans still wonder if Trestman is getting enough out of quarterback Jay Cutler.
Smith has had his own QB issues. One of his first moves was to grab Josh McCown out of Chicago and make him his starter. McCown lost his first three starts then was hurt, but he guided Tampa Bay to a win over the Washington Redskins last week, offering some hope for the final six weeks.
5. To switch QBs, or not to switch: This late in the season, coaches with struggling offenses are more inclined to make quarterback switches. Rams coach Jeff Fisher said after a loss to Arizona that Austin Davis would keep his starting quarterback job, but shortly afterward he benched him for Shaun Hill, who beat the Broncos last week. Houston's Bill O'Brien benched Ryan Fitzpatrick for Ryan Mallett and was rewarded with a Week 11 win over the Cleveland Browns.
While it seems unlikely that Robert Griffin III will get benched by Washington coach Jay Gruden, his poor play makes you wonder if the call will be made. Gruden called out Griffin for poor footwork against the Bucs and later apologized. Over the past two seasons, RG III has gone 4-13 in his starts. His QBR has dropped from 73.2 during his rookie season to 38.8 the past two years. The Redskins have gone from being a playoff team to one of the NFL's worst teams. It doesn't help that they play San Francisco on Sunday, a team with a top-five defense.
You also have to wonder if the Browns would consider going to Johnny Manziel if they drop out of the playoff race, although Brian Hoyer has been great and has his team in the thick of it at 6-4.