This is the second in a series of articles about teams from each of the Power 5 conferences that will be surprisingly better or worse than currently expected.
Last season Baylor won 11 games for the second consecutive campaign. Had it not split the Big 12 title with TCU (which it arguably should not have had to do, given its victory over the Horned Frogs), the Bears may have ended the season with an invitation to the College Football Playoff.
Since the Bears bring back 17 starters from last year's squad (tied for the most in the Big 12 ), it may look like this club will replicate its 2014 victory total and finally get a coveted playoff roster spot.
Not to rain on this parade, but before rubber-stamping an 11-win total and postseason berth, consider that there are 10 reasons pointing toward Baylor falling short of the Big 12 title in 2015.
(Note: Unless otherwise specified, the metrics below are from games against Power 5 teams and the rankings are the placement among the 65 Power 5 teams.)
1. Bryce Petty is not easy to replace
Seth Russell is a highly talented player and there is a lot of skill-position talent around him. But before thinking he will take over and immediately post equal numbers to Petty, consider how first-year Baylor quarterbacks have fared under Art Briles.
Robert Griffin III ranked seventh in the Big 12 in Total QBR during his initial season under center (66.2). In 2009, Nick Florence filled in for an injured Griffin and ended up sixth in the conference in Total QBR (57.8). Petty is the only quarterback to post elite numbers in his opening season as a starter under Briles (83.6 Total QBR, best in the Big 12). This goes to show that no matter how talented Russell is, early success in this area is not a given.