NCAAF teams
Brad Edwards, College Football 9y

Playoff Forecast: Can Baylor jump?

Insider College Football, Florida State Seminoles, Oregon Ducks, TCU Horned Frogs, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Alabama Crimson Tide, Baylor Bears, Ohio State Buckeyes, UCLA Bruins, Georgia Bulldogs, Kansas State Wildcats

With only two weeks remaining until the playoff committee's final rankings, contenders are running out of chances to win their way into the four-team field.

Although it's not a prediction of the committee's top 25, the Playoff Forecast will use the ESPN Football Power Index and human logic (i.e., the eye test) to determine which teams are best positioned when the committee announces the playoff teams on Dec. 7. These rankings take into account perceived team strength (including injuries), remaining schedule difficulty (including prospective conference championship games) and the current selection committee rankings.


1. Oregon Ducks

FPI's chance of winning out: 59.9 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 66.6 percent

Although Oregon has no more home games, I feel slightly better about its chance to win out than the other two teams that seem to control their playoff destinies (Florida State and Alabama). The Ducks are at Oregon State this week, and their likely Pac-12 title game opponent is UCLA, whom they dominated at the Rose Bowl on Oct. 11. But the Bruins have played much better of late and could pose a threat to Oregon if they can first clinch the South with a win over Stanford on Friday. FPI gives the Ducks a 64 percent chance to win if they play UCLA again.

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