The College Football Playoff selection committee has a tough task ahead, especially at a point in the season when so much remains unsettled. Two major conference undefeated teams, Florida State and Mississippi State, will occupy two of the top four spots when the committee produces its first top 25 on Tuesday, but how will the committee land on the next two positions? There are currently 18 one-loss teams, 16 of which play a Power 5 schedule.
Each of those 16 teams is certainly in the playoff hunt as long as each keeps winning. Our opponent-adjusted drive efficiency ratings won't identify which teams are most deserving of consideration, but they might help indicate which teams are best positioned to remain playoff contenders over the final weeks of the season.
We produced individual game win likelihoods for each remaining matchup for the 16 power conference one-loss teams. Based on our results, there is a 92 percent chance at least two of the following teams will win the rest of their regular-season games. It will be up to the selection committee to decide if any two-loss team résumés will be strong enough to leap ahead.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (43.1 percent likely to win out)
Toughest remaining opponent: at Wisconsin (66 percent win likelihood)
The Big Ten overall has not had a strong showing this season, and the West division in particular has presented few challengers. The Huskers have only three top-40 opponents on their regular-season schedule according to our FEI ratings, and only one of those (Wisconsin) remains to be played. Nebraska is one of only three teams ranked among the top 15 in both offensive and defensive points per drive.