NCAAF teams
Brad Edwards, College Football 9y

Playoff Forecast: Rebels rising

Insider College Football

Each week throughout the season, the Playoff Forecast will use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and human logic (i.e., the eye test) to determine which teams are best positioned for spots in the inaugural College Football Playoff. These rankings take into account perceived team strength (including injuries) and remaining schedule difficulty, including prospective conference championship games.

The Playoff Forecast is not intended to be a prediction of the selection committee's weekly Top 25, which will be released every Tuesday starting Oct. 28. It is a projection of which teams have the best chance to be in the top four come December.


1. Florida State Seminoles

FPI's chance of winning out: 31.2 percent

FPI's chance of winning the conference: 74.4 percent

Having cleared a major hurdle against Notre Dame, the Seminoles have a good chance to finish the regular season undefeated, which would make them a lock for the playoff field. And what makes me like that possibility even more is that FPI gives the Noles more than a 75 percent chance to win at Louisville and at Miami. But even if FSU drops one of those games, it would still have a shot at the playoff because of its presumed ACC title and head-to-head edge on Notre Dame (if the Irish run the table).

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