There are six games on the college football schedule this weekend between ranked opponents, three of which are battles among contenders in the SEC West. All six games may have an impact on the College Football Playoff picture, but the non-SEC matchups this weekend may prove to be the most important.
It is too early to definitively eliminate any one-loss teams from playoff contention, and depending on how upsets shake out over the course of the season, several two-loss teams may have strong arguments for consideration as well at the end of the year. That said, several games this weekend feel like must-win matchups in the sense that the loser might have too high a mountain to climb if they fall. Notre Dame, Nebraska, Oklahoma and TCU each have fewer ranked future opponents than the SEC West contenders; Michigan State and Stanford are already saddled with a loss apiece and probably can't afford another one.
Based on our opponent-adjusted drive efficiency ratings, we compared each of these matchups with every FBS-vs.-FBS game played from 2004 to 2013 to identify team similarities and the likelihood of victory. Not surprisingly, these games project to be closely contended, and the outcome of each may come down to a few key efficiency measures.
Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Overall FEI win likelihood: Stanford (58.3 percent)