NCAAF teams
Brad Edwards, College Football 10y

Introducing the Playoff Predictor

Insider College Football

Each week throughout the season, the Playoff Predictor will use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and human logic (i.e., the eye test) to determine which teams are still alive in the chase for the inaugural College Football Playoff. These rankings take into account perceived team strength (including injuries) and remaining schedule difficulty (including prospective conference championship games).

The Playoff Predictor is not intended to be a forecast of the selection committee's weekly Top 25, which will be released every Tuesday starting Oct. 28. It is a projection of which teams have the best chance to be in the final four come December.


Front Four
The teams best positioned to reach the playoff following Week 1.

1. Florida State Seminoles

FPI's chance of winning out: 43.2percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 79.9 percent

The Seminoles didn't look like the nation's best team last Saturday, but they did survive one of their few expected challenges away from home this season. On top of that, the team considered to be FSU's toughest competition in the ACC (Clemson) doesn't look very capable of beating the Noles. In fact, FPI now predicts playing at Louisville will be their toughest ACC test. Basically, Florida State is a playoff lock as long as it is undefeated, and its chances of that are the strongest in the country.

2. Oklahoma Sooners

FPI's chance of winning out: 4.2 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 34.2 percent

The Sooners dominated Louisiana Tech, as expected, but their stock got a boost because of some negative developments for a couple of their future opponents.

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