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In the first week of February one year ago, three of the four teams that would eventually reach the Final Four looked to be in trouble. Eventual national champion UConn was sitting outside the AP Top 25 as the calendar flipped to February, and would fall to a middling 5-4 in the American Athletic Conference that same week. Kentucky was hanging around the top 20, but the Wildcats already had lost to unranked Arkansas and LSU (both of which ended up in the NIT), and the 3-4 stretch of basketball that played a major role in UK dropping to a No. 8 seed was on the horizon. Wisconsin, which had started the season 16-0, was in the midst of a 1-5 stretch that dropped the Badgers clear out of the Top 25. Only Florida, in the midst of a 30-game win streak that carried the Gators straight on to Arlington, Texas, in April, was accurately and universally rubber-stamped as an eventual Final Four team. Syracuse (then 21-0), Wichita State (23-0) and Arizona (21-0 until suffering its first loss Feb. 1) were then viewed as the hunted -- and the Orange and Shockers wouldn't even reach the Sweet 16. The above is a way of saying all teams are vulnerable in a single-elimination tournament comprised almost exclusively of good teams that can catch fire and defy odds, and there are many more viable Final Four and title candidates than there might seem. That's where our group of experts comes in.
How the teams were picked: We asked eight members of our college basketball team at ESPN Insider (Jay Bilas, Dan Dakich, Sean Farnham, Fran Fraschilla, John Gasaway, Jeff Goodman, Seth Greenberg and Joe Lunardi) not to make their Final Four picks, but to identify the 12 teams they would be least surprised to see reach the Final Four. A total of 21 teams were named, including two currently residing outside the Top 25. Meanwhile, six current members of the AP Top 25 were not cited by any of our Insiders as a no-surprise Final Four team. No surprises (named on 100 percent of ballots) Arizona Wildcats (named on 8 of 8 ballots) I would not be surprised to see the Wildcats reach the Final Four because ... "the Wildcats have tremendous balance to go along with a transcendent player in 6-6 freshman Stanley Johnson. His impact reminds of another freshman pushing a veteran core to the 2003 national championship (Carmelo Anthony, Syracuse). The Cats may also benefit from a favorable West Region seed." -- Joe Lunardi
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