You can almost imagine the scene: late August in the Virginia athletic offices. Someone rushes into coach Tony Bennett's office with a frantic announcement -- we're picturing M. Gustave and his Lobby Boy here -- that the 2014-15 ACC schedule has been released. Bennett grabs the paper, furrows his brow, and begins tracing his team's far-off task. Halfway down the page, his finger stops. The camera zooms.
Jan. 31: Duke.
Feb. 2: At North Carolina.
Feb. 7: Louisville.
Yikes.
Back then, Bennett probably didn't know how good his team would be. If he did, he didn't betray it, not even to his own players. (In December, the UVa coach told the ESPNU College Basketbal podcast that he merely instructed his team to reach its own full potential.
"That may take you further, and you may be better than the year before. Or you might not go as far and not be as good. That's irregardless. I just want you to be as good as this group can be."
Six months, 19 wins and zero losses later, everyone knows exactly how good the No. 2-ranked Virginia Cavaliers are. This three-game week remains every bit as crucial and brutal as it did in August. Only the calculus is different.
For example: If Virginia can somehow emerge from the next eight days with three wins, the Cavs will immediately be given a real chance of running the regular-season table. After Feb. 7, the Cavaliers would have a road game at NC State and then five straight against teams ranked outside the adjusted efficiency top 100 (Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Florida State, at Wake, Virginia Tech). Getting to March's last two ACC regular-season games (at Syracuse, at Louisville) without a loss would suddenly seem realistic. And if you're that good, why can't you win at Syracuse? Why can't you win at Louisville? Of course you can.
That we're even semi-joking about these kinds of questions, rather than talking about Virginia's eventual NCAA tournament seed, says everything about how good Virginia has already been this season. The Cavs are the only team in the country that ranks among the nation's five best offenses and defenses on a per-possession basis. In conference play, they've held opponents to just .86 points per trip. Second place is a tie between North Carolina and Syracuse, who each allow a point per possession. The same intense pack-line strength that led UVa to last season's ACC regular-season and tournament titles is here again, and arguably tougher to penetrate than a season ago, while Virginia's offense is better and more versatile by a considerable margin.
This balance can't be overstated -- and not just because being good at scoring and defending is the key to this whole "winning at basketball" thing. That balance has lifted Virginia on nights when either end of the floor is slightly off. Most of the time, defense is enough -- the Hoos held Notre Dame's top-ranked group to 56 points in 55 trips in South Bend, to name one example. But Davidson and Miami torched the Cavaliers in consecutive games in late December and early January, and the Hoos' efficient offense carried them through anyway.
This balance extends to personnel: Point guard London Perrantes is even better than he was as a freshman. Center Mike Tobey has become one of the nation's best rebounders, and wing Justin Anderson and forward Anthony Gill have morphed from solid role players a season ago into Wooden Award-worthy stars. Most college basketball teams have to control the terms of the engagement to win. Their best players have to play well. The style has to suit them. Virginia's whole-court distribution means it can still beat you when any one of those things isn't true. There's always a hedge. There's always a path forward.
That's how Duke, with all its talented freshmen and national championship aspirations, will arrive at John Paul Jones Arena (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN & WatchESPN) expected by most to lose -- and why it's reasonable, even wise, to expect Virginia will emerge on Feb. 8 with three wins and its ACC lead still very much intact.
Not because the opponents haven't been good. Because Virginia has been that much better. What a fascinating week this promises to be.
No. 12 Wichita State at No. 18 Northern Iowa, Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN2 & WatchESPN
Last season, when Wichita State was polishing off its 35-0 regular-season record, the come-lately casuals were bemoaning the Shockers' schedule -- particularly the dreary Missouri Valley -- as a reason to keep an undefeated team from its rightful No. 1 seed. Coach Gregg Marshall & Co. don't have to worry about that this season, for two reasons: They're not in No. 1-seed contention, and Northern Iowa is more than up to the challenger's task. Over the course of one season, the Panthers have gone from nonexistent defensively to one of the nation's best 15 outfits, while senior Seth Tuttle is putting up All-American numbers on the low block. But don't let Wichita State's two losses fool you: This Shockers team is starting to look just as good as last season's. Marshall has figured out his best frontcourt rotation; Ron Baker is as relibale a star as there is in college basketball; and Fred VanVleet is starting to do that thing where he basically never turns the ball over (he has 48 assists and 11 turnovers in the month of January). These are two excellent teams. This is going to be a great game. This season, the Valley has nothing to answer for.
No. 13 North Carolina at No. 10 Louisville, Saturday, 4 p.m. ET on ESPN & WatchESPN
Before these two teams take their aforementioned swings at Virginia, they get to meet each other, and it's hard to know what to make of the potential watchability scale when they do. On the one hand, a top-15 matchup between long, athletic, pestering and up-tempo defenses should be inherently fun to watch. On the other hand, neither of these teams shoot the ball well (especially from the perimeter), both turn it over fairly frequently, and both teams' strengths -- all that length and strength and speed and offensive rebounding -- can sometimes result in large stretches of aesthetically questionable play. Our guess is the pace will make it fun ... but if the bricks start flying, don't say you weren't warned.
No. 19 Texas at No. 20 Baylor, Saturday, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2 & WatchESPN
Want to hear something crazy? Both of these teams really are among the nation's 20 or so best. They have flaws, sure, but everyone not named Kentucky and Virginia has flaws, and there are some real quantifiable strengths on both rosters. And yet whichever team loses Saturday will fall to 3-5 in the Big 12, and whichever team wins will have merely crept back to .500 in league play. Likewise, we can't decide which team needs it more. Texas is coming off back-to-back losses to Kansas and Iowa State, and a top-20 win on the road might be just the thing the Longhorns' offense needs ... but Baylor is coming off its own road loss at Oklahoma State and has a chance to pick up two straight wins with TCU on deck Wednesday. Such is life in this Big 12: Good teams, sub-.500 records, no rest for the weary.
Kansas State at No. 9 Kansas, Saturday, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN & WatchESPN
While the rest of the Big 12 is beating itself to a pulp, look who's quietly moved to the top of the standings. Yes, Kansas is 6-1 in league play, and if this Jayhawks team manages to end this season with its 11th straight Big 12 title, Bill Self should change his name to "Selfus Augustus" and force the league to declare him champion for life. The Jayhawks remain as tough an out as ever, and they're getting more and better contributions from freshmen who either struggled in, or just plain missed out on, the nonconference slate: Cliff Alexander is rebounding like a maniac, Kelly Oubre Jr. has cut out the tunrovers, and Devonte Graham is finally giving Frank Mason III some legitimate backcourt help. It's hard to imagine Kansas State knocking these Jayhawks out of their stride in Lawrence. Then again, Kansas State pretty much only plays close games. You never know.
No. 5 Wisconsin at Iowa, Saturday, noon ET on ESPN & WatchESPN
Iowa coach Fran McCaffery is eager to put the Adam Woodbury eye-poke "scandal" in the past, which is good, because it somehow overshadowed the fact that the last time these two teams played (just 10 days ago), Wisconsin torched Iowa to the tune of 82 points and one turnover in 54 possessions. The Hawkeyes didn't look much better in their follow-up (a loss to Purdue); they'll enter Saturday with the 14th-ranked defense in the Big Ten. The Badgers may not flirt with perfection on the road, but to avoid a blowout, Iowa's defense will have to get better fast.
Rutgers doesn't have much of a chance against Indiana in Saturday's road trip, but the Hoosiers' close observers have good reason to pay attention: On Wednesday, in a 16-point win, Purdue coach Matt Painter used his physical backcourt to press up on Indiana's guards and disconnect ball handlers from shooters. If Rutgers tries a similar defensive strategy, it's safe to say the rest of the Big Ten will soon be on board.
Most likely to devolve into a mascot-sparked riot
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. Bedlam on the basketball court, hilarity off it: The last time these two met, on Jan. 17 in Norman, Oklahoma ended up firing one of its mascots, who was accused of harassing the same group of fans (including OSU coach Travis Ford's wife) repeatedly and against their preference. The Cowboys will be seeking some measure of revenge this time around, no doubt. If OU's defense proves too tough a nut to crack, may we suggest deploying that super-creepy Cowboy mascot? Shudder.
Most regrettable nonconference scheduling quirk
Memphis at Gonzaga. When Josh Pastner scheduled his midseason home-and-home with Gonzaga, the programs were on roughly equal footing -- last season's win in Memphis was a pivotal one for the Tigers. This season, it just looks masochistic. Pastner's team is 13-7 and chugging through a disappointing season all-around; Gonzaga is wielding one of the nation's best offenses in one of the nation's least forgiving venues.
Least likely to grab an offensive rebound
Richmond at VCU. A weird thing is happening in Richmond this season: The Spiders have basically given up on the idea of rebounding their own misses. Richmond's offensive rebound rate is just 22.2 percent, 345th in Division I. The good news? You don't really need to rebound your misses against VCU, because if the Rams don't force you to turn the ball over, it's usually pretty easy to score. Richmond is turning it over less than any other A-10 team. This sneaky-fun rivalry might just be a sneaky-good matchup, too.
Most confusing conference
Yep, it's still the Big East! Let's see: So Xavier can lose at DePaul. Georgetown beats Villanova senseless at home. Xavier travels to Georgetown and wins. Meanwhile, Seton Hall can beat Villanova in overtime and then lose to Xavier and then lose at home to DePaul? Huh? How does this work? And if you have no idea what to think of both teams before a game like Saturday's Xavier trip to Seton Hall, how do you talk about what a win or loss will mean for either team? The Big East is going to be the official league of Bubble Watch this season. We can already feel it.
Sneakiest Big 12 contender
West Virginia. Iowa State has long received the majority of the "Who will unseat Kansas?" love, but Bob Huggins' bunch isn't going anywhere. After this week's impressive win at K-State, the Mountaineers are tied for second at 5-2 in the conference and still playing that boiling full-court press. Saturday's home date with Texas Tech should be a nice, brief respite before the punishing Big 12 schedule returns in force.
• 49.6 and 49.2: The first number is Duke's average field goal percentage this season. The second number is the average number of points Virginia allows per game. Yes, yes, the Cavaliers' methodical pace helps, and these figures are barely related from an analytic perspective, but, still, seriously? How often does a team's field goal percentage exceed its opponent's average points allowed? It can't be very often.
• 1: The total number of players Mike Krzyzewski has kicked off his team in 35 years as the Duke head men's basketball coach. Rasheed Sulaimon, dismissed from the team in a surprise announcement Thursday, earned the unfortunate honor.
• 27: Wichita State has won 27 consecutive Missouri Valley games, a streak the Wichita State athletic department calls the longest in "modern Valley history." If the Shockers win Saturday, and eventually get to 16-0 in league play this season, they'd equal the Valley's all-time record ... which Kansas set in 1922-24, back when it was mostly playing the Topeka YMCA.