The tricky part is remembering how little you really know.
Two weeks ago, there was no basketball. Now that there is basketball, and sight unseen has turned into HDTV, it's tempting to treat new information too enthusiastically.
That's how false conclusions happen. You were already guessing; three games in, you're merely guessing a little bit less. Premature proclamations are an annual rite of November, and every year we have to remind ourselves to cool it. As Bill Self said, there's a long season ahead.
Which should help drive home the sense of conviction inherent in the following statement after (basically) one game: The California Golden Bears are not the seventh-best team in the Pac-12.
Yes, that's where the Bears were picked by the Pac-12 media poll in October. One game or not, on Thursday night, the Bears handled a tall, athletic and clearly talented No. 22 Syracuse team 3,000 miles from Berkeley in an arena Orange fans treat like a second home. The final score: Cal 73, Cuse 59. Syracuse shot horribly and let its zone get a bit too stretched at times, and maybe this Boeheim team isn't top-25-by-default for the first time in a half-decade. No matter. You don't do what Cal did without being above-average.
Also, Kentucky's pretty good. These are the kinds of conclusions we're willing to draw.
Fortunately, more data arrives just 24 hours later. On Friday night (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2), in the most interesting matchup of the weekend, the Bears take on fellow Coaches Vs. Cancer semifinal winner Texas.
The Longhorns struggled in the first half against a seemingly slept-on Iowa team before exploiting their advantages against the Hawkeyes -- quickness, length, strength, Jonathan Holmes -- en route to a blowout. By the end, they looked all of their No. 10 ranking and then some. Myles Turner might be the most talented reserve in the country. Holmes appears to have transitioned to a genuine small forward role, complete with legitimate 3-point range. Isaiah Taylor was relentless and efficient getting at the rim (but he will miss tonight's game with a wrist injury).
Whatever Taylor's status, the sudden back-to-back is a fascinating opportunity for the Bears. Martin mostly respected Syracuse's shooters, and instead relied on his interior defenders -- particularly his best player, David Kravish -- to ward off post scoring after the catch. In doing so, the Bears managed to hold both center Rakeem Christmas and sharpshooter Trevor Cooney each to 3-of-10 shooting from the field.
How much of that was Cal being a great defensive team? How much was Syracuse just not making shots? Texas, save Holmes, doesn't look like a great 3-point group either, but its big men are good enough to create quality looks (and lots of putbacks) all the same. Can Cal hold Texas to less than a point per possession, as it did Syracuse? Is Martin's hard defensive philosophy already rubbing off on a new group of players? Or was last night just an aberration?
Whatever answers we get Friday night will still be incomplete. It will still be November. But if Cal is really good enough to beat Syracuse and Texas on consecutive nights, it's going to be difficult to keep the calendar date in mind.
Iowa vs. No. 23 Syracuse, Friday, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Save Roy Devyn Marble and Melsahn Basabe, the Hawkeyes returned everyone from a team that, before its late-season collapse, played some of 2013-14's most fluid offense. Texas snuffed that out in the second half Thursday night. Going 0-2 in the Garden would give Iowa just two more chances to notch nonconference victories before the start of Big Ten play (at North Carolina, vs. Iowa State). Must-win this is not. But it's a big game all the same.
George Washington vs. No. 9 Virginia, Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Speaking of early opportunities, after last season's breakout campaign, Mike Lonergan's GW team hasn't received a ton of offseason publicity. But the Colonials have everyone healthy, which means a dynamic Kethan Savage-Patricio Garino duo in full effect on the wing. Winning at UVa is a very tall task, but don't be surprised if this is closer than expected.
Coaches Vs. Cancer Classic, Friday and Saturday
The two games on Friday night -- Duke vs. Temple and Stanford vs. UNLV -- aren't as good as the name brands might suggest, but if the Cardinal handle the Rebels, Johnny Dawkins will get a crack at his coach and mentor, Mike Krzyzewski. And center Stefan Nastic might be one of six or seven players in the country with the chops to guard Jahlil Okafor on the block.
Notre Dame vs. Providence, Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Irish are off to a great start offensively; they've shot 59 percent from 2 and 39 percent from 3. Unfortunately, those numbers came against Binghamton, Navy and Coppin State. The Friars are blocking 17 percent of their opponents' shots; they'll present a far different challenge to Mike Brey's team.
Best potential matchup
If UConn and West Virginia both win out in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, Huskies guard Ryan Boatright and Mountaineers star Juwan Staten would face each other on Sunday. Yes please.
Least likely to cough it up
Wisconsin rarely turns it over anyway, but on Saturday, the Badgers play Boise State, which ranked 258th in turnover rate defensively last season, and ranks 343rd in steal rate so far this season.
Least likely to break 50
Marshall is averaging well under a point per possession so far this season. Louisville is holding opponents to .86 points per trip. You do the math.
Best chance to impress
UMass has a different look this season without spitfire guard Chaz Williams, but Minutemen fans are positively in love with Derrick Gordon, who has a two-game shot (against Notre Dame and Florida State) to increase his profile amid a somewhat sleepy early weekend.
Least likely to be affected by elevation
Since Larry Shyatt took over at Wyoming in 2011, visiting Laramie, Wyoming, has turned into a profoundly unpleasant experience. At least Colorado, which travels there Saturday, will be used to the thin air.
• 19 -- The number of 3-point shots Texas guard Isaiah Taylor -- who is 6-foot-1 and led the Longhorns in usage last season -- attempted in 2013-14. Through three games in 2014-15, he's already attempted six (and made four). Taylor will miss tonight's game, and maybe more, with a wrist injury.
• 221.7 -- That's Finnish Davidson freshman Oskar Michelsen's current offensive rating, good for No. 1 in the country. In 42 minutes, Michelsen has shot 11 times -- all 3s -- and made nine of them. Expect that number to dip after Saturday afternoon's visit from North Carolina.
• 3 -- The combined score by which UNLV beat Morehead State and Sam Houston State, its first two opponents of the 2014-15 season. Shooting 51.4 percent from the free throw line didn't help.
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- The past two weeks have been nothing shy of misery at Indiana.
An accident that left Devin Davis with a serious brain injury partnered with the suspensions of Troy Williams and Stanford Robinson pushed the Hoosiers to what seemed like another season on the brink.
There were more than a few cries for Tom Crean's head, and almost a universal outcry that the current crop of Hoosiers were sullying the candy-striped pants.
To read the rest of this story, click here.