The Grizzlies are on pace to open the playoffs at home, as the second seed, against the seventh-seeded Mavericks. But in ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) the Mavericks rank slightly ahead of the Grizzlies, and there's a good chance they'll prevail should the two teams meet.
With perennial all-defensive team stars Tony Allen and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have the third-ranked defense in the league, behind only the Spurs and the Warriors. They have been sliding down the BPI rankings, however, because of their offense. Despite a strong start, the Grizzlies are now 14th in offense and have fallen two spots in BPI because it keeps getting worse.
Before the Grizzlies acquired Jeff Green, they were scoring 106 points per 100 possessions, but since then, they are averaging only 102 points per 100 possessions. The biggest change for them is that they are now turning the ball over more frequently (plus-1.5 turnovers per 100 possessions). In their area of greatest weakness, the Grizzlies have been going in the wrong direction.
The Mavericks paint a very different picture. While the Mavericks have been falling in the BPI rankings, they have been improving on their area of greatest weakness. They are fourth offensively in BPI, but rank 17th defensively. Prior to acquiring Rajon Rondo, the Mavericks were giving up 105 points per 100 possessions; they are now giving up an average of only 101 points per 100 possessions.
Coincidentally, the biggest change for the Mavericks has also been with turnovers. They are creating 1.5 more turnovers per 100 possessions since adding Rondo.
While neither individual player acquisition (Green or Rondo) should receive all the blame or credit for the changes, their additions do help illustrate the season-long trends for both teams. The Grizzlies are slowly getting worse on offense, while the Mavericks continue to improve on defense.
Given that this will be a matchup of strength on strength and weakness on weakness, the team that is improving on its weakness certainly seems to have an advantage. So while the Grizzlies will likely be the second seed heading into the playoffs, the Mavericks are lining up to advance to the second round.
BPI notes:
• Biggest riser: The Cleveland Cavaliers are the biggest mover up the rankings in the past two weeks, rising seven spots to third.
• Biggest faller: The Mavericks are the biggest mover down the rankings, falling four spots in the past two weeks, to seventh.
• The Milwaukee Bucks have a 20 percent chance of moving up to the fifth seed.
• The most likely first-round matchup is the Warriors vs. the Thunder: 62 percent.
• The most likely first-round matchup in the Eastern Conference is the Wizards vs. the Bulls: 42 percent.
NBA Basketball Power Index Rankings
Note: The NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team. BPI is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance for the rest of the season. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. BPI accounts for game-by-game efficiencies, strength of schedule, pace, number of days' rest, game location and preseason expectations. Ratings will be updated in this space weekly.