It took a little bit less than three weeks of the 2014-15 season to pass before Boston Celtics coach Brad Stevens fielded his first question about whether he had considered tinkering with his lineup and rotations.
Stevens admitted it was a fair question and one that he'd pondered while trying to figure out why Boston has struggled defensively and allowed a few winnable games to slip away. But Stevens also made it clear that it's much too early to overreact to early-season trends -- both good and bad -- and that he doesn't feel Boston's woes can be solved by simply swapping out a starter.
As the questions that arrived in the Celtics mailbag this week only confirmed, observers are restless. Boston is 4-6, which isn't a particularly bad start, especially considering the level of competition the Celtics have faced and how they've been competitive in all but one game (Houston). But after kicking away potential wins against the Cavaliers and Suns, then looking lethargic at times against the winless 76ers, mailbaggers are ready to tinker.
Let's talk them down in this week's Celtics mailbag:
Q: Is it time to move Tyler Zeller into the starting lineup? -- Eric, @e_sal513 (via Twitter)
A: OK, we knew this one was coming. Zeller has been one of the league's most efficient offensive players and is shooting 83.3 percent from the floor. If he keeps finishing pick-and-rolls at this rate, he'll be more popular than Semih Erden, Greg Stiemsma, Shavlik Randolph and all the team's other recent backup big men combined by season's end. Given Boston's lack of a pure center, chatter about starting Zeller was inevitable at some point this season. I think Zeller is in a good spot as a changeup off the bench at the moment. He tends to thrive against other pure bigs, exploiting his ability to run the floor. As we saw on Wednesday night, Philadelphia's long and athletic bigs gave him more trouble. Stevens can pick his spots with Zeller in a reserve role right now and ride him when he's got advantageous matchups. We'd expect to see a bunch of him against Memphis on Friday. Ironically, it's Boston's better defensive play when Zeller is on the floor that might make the best case for an increased role. And his numbers alongside Jared Sullinger have been eye-popping -- but more on that later.
Q: I'm the most consistent player on the team and without me the 76ers would have won their first game of the season. Until Kelly Olynyk learns to stop pump faking and fire away, I need to be inserted into the starting lineup. -- Brandon Bass (Boston)
A: Easy there, Brandon. Before Wednesday's game you had some of the worst on/off splits on the team. You're in a tough spot. The Celtics are trying to find more minutes for the likes of Sullinger, Olynyk and Zeller, and you've seen your playing time dip again while adjusting to a reserve role. If you keep impacting games the way you did on Wednesday, it'll force Stevens to reconsider an elevated role. But it's not time to flip the lineup after one solid effort. Boston's offense has still been 11 points better per 100 possessions when you're off the floor (though the team could use more of your defensive physicality from Wednesday's game to prevent getting bullied around the basket).
Q: What's your opinion of Kelly Olynyk? Is he really future star material, or more of a second-string role player? Or something in between? -- Carlene (Winona, Minn.)
A: After his poorest outing of the season Monday against Phoenix, Olynyk has found himself in the crosshairs of tinker-happy Boston fans. The fact he's not a pure center and that the Celtics have struggled to defend near the rim makes it even easier to suggest changes at the center spot. The jury is still out if the Sullinger/Olynyk combo is a sustainable starting duo. In 152 minutes of floor time, the pair still has a positive rating differential, in large part because the team is averaging 110 points per 100 possessions with them. There's a lot to like about the way Sullinger and Olynyk can stretch the floor and the amount of passing potential the Celtics have when they are together. We will say this: The Zeller/Sullinger combo has played only 44 minutes together this season, but the numbers are staggering (112.1 offensive rating; 89.4 defensive). We'd like to see more of it in sub lineups to see if they can maintain those numbers. But back to your question.
Olynyk is an extremely skilled offensive player and that's a big reason he's earned the starting center job. It's a high compliment when both your coach and fan base are screaming for you to be less hesitant and fire away more beyond the 3-point arc. There doesn't seem to be much concern that Olynyk can be a very consistent offensive presence. Right now, it's all about finding himself defensively. He's been a step late at times and has been forced to foul too often early in the season. The more he plays, the more comfortable he should get. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt learning the center spot. But his ability to emerge as at least a serviceable big defender will go a long way in dictating his ceiling.
Q: Is Brandon Bass the most likely player to get traded this year? Why? -- @MandoThe_Man (via Twitter)
A: The Celtics are certainly not going to give Bass away, but it's not hard to see why he's one of the more likely bodies to be moved. Boston has a lot of young frontcourt talent that needs minutes and the 29-year-old Bass, playing in the final year of a reasonably priced contract, doesn't have a certain future here. A contender looking for frontcourt help might be enticed by Bass' versatility and lunch-pail mentality. Bass has been a good soldier in Boston, but he was brought in to be a complementary piece of a contending team. His role on a rebuilding team with young frontcourt talent is far murkier. But if Boston progresses to the point that the C's are a fringe playoff team, then Bass' value as a veteran presence might be amplified.
Q: Why did the Celtics draft Marcus Smart if he's only going to serve as Rondo's backup? -- @RotheGreat_ (via Twitter)
A: When Smart is healthy, it's clear the Celtics are going to lean heavily on him. Right now, that means a reserve role, but we've seen the team utilize a lot of three-guard lineups to get him on the floor with Rondo and Avery Bradley. Let's keep in mind, too, that we don't know exactly what position Smart will ultimately settle into at the NBA level. The Celtics can utilize him at both guard positions at the moment while they figure out where he best thrives. I understand why some bristle at the notion of the sixth overall pick playing a reserve role, but he's still seventh on the team in minutes and his playing time will only grow as the season goes on.
Q: Why on earth is Evan Turn(ov)er still playing backup point guard? Versus Philly he brought the ball up even when Phil Pressey was on the floor! -- Mike, @MikeDynon (via Twitter)
A: Turner certainly tends to dribble himself into trouble at times, but we've seen that he's still most effective with the ball in his hands. He's one of Boston's few players that can get into the paint off the dribble. Turner is far from the only player with turnover issues; they simply need him to make smarter plays (and not leave his feet without somewhere to go with the ball). The Celtics' offensive numbers with Turner on the court have been solid, including a 108.2 offensive rating. The bigger concern from this view is Turner's defense (the team's defensive rating is nearly nine points higher when Turner is on the court versus when he's off).
Q: My question is just this: Vitor Faverani? -- Joe, @SpaceKappa (via Twitter)
A: Faverani underwent a second knee surgery on Oct. 13 and the team announced a recovery timeline of six to eight weeks. Well, we're about five weeks since that point and it's been nothing but shoulder shrugs when Faverani's name and progress is brought up. Earlier this week, Stevens noted that there had been no increased activity with Faverani and that he had "zero idea" when he'd start making any. Faverani sat on the bench for Friday's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but he's otherwise been stashed behind the scenes. Stevens has acknowledged that Faverani is frustrated by the way his knee has balked since his original injury in February, but the team is likely frustrated, too, by the lack of progress. It's too bad because, as much as Faverani struggled at times last season, he's still a center who, when healthy and with proper development, could help Boston.
Q: I know it's early, but after watching these guys play for a few weeks, where do you see their record being at the end of the season? Personally, I'm dreading a semi-decent record thanks to scrappy play and a weak East, then landing a blah draft pick somewhere from 16th-18th, which sets us up for another one of these groundhog day seasons in 2015-16. -- James (San Francisco, Calif.)
A: Simply too early to tell. The supremely optimistic Celtics fans believe that a tough November schedule and Smart's injury have prevented Boston from posting a better mark to this point. The Celtics are still struggling in "clutch" games, something that contributed to winning only 25 games a year ago. But if the team shows progress in that area alone, there's reason to think they could get within striking distance of the playoffs in the less-than-imposing East. But can we table this until Christmas, when we'll have a much better idea of what this team is capable of? There are four tough games here to close out November, a month that Boston admitted it needed to simply keep its head above water. December is heavier on games, but not quite as daunting of a slate. It might be a chance for Boston to build the sort of confidence that has been missing this month.