INDIANAPOLIS -- Any poker player can describe the difference between just losing a hand and suffering a "bad beat."
The cards and odds are in your favor, you have the momentum, but suddenly a turn of luck changes everything. It is even worse when the bet was an all-in. The aftermath of such a defeat can be depression. Essentially, those are the circumstances in which the Indiana Pacers find themselves as they prepare for a new season.
Last year the Pacers went all-in ... and lost. And then came the bad luck. Their two best young players, Lance Stephenson and Paul George, are gone for different reasons. And their division rivals, the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers, have zipped past them in talent.
The fallout has been sobering.
"Obviously, we're not in a position to compete for a title," said Pacers veteran David West. "I don't even think we can look at the big picture."
West is just calling it like he sees it -- many others see it that way too -- and he's been in the league too long for rainbows and lollipops. He's about to begin his 12th season and doesn't speak without careful thought. West is openly saying that he's considered retirement. He can't be blamed for being honest.
Pacers coach Frank Vogel, as is his nature, is going the opposite direction and searching for the sun through the clouds as he tries to set the tone for the team's season.
"I actually think continuity is one of our strengths," Vogel said. "We have 10 players back who were with us last year."
Vogel is correct about that, but the two missing guys are rather glaring. On Tuesday at the Pacers' first practice of the season, the wings playing with the first team were Rodney Stuckey and Solomon Hill. Stuckey is a veteran but a career role player, while Hill is an unproven second-year pro who barely played as a rookie, and his Summer League was cut short because of an ankle injury. Free-agent pickup C.J. Miles could eventually be the starter at one of the wings, but no matter how it's broken down, this is not the same team that won 56 games last season.
Early in training camp last year, Vogel spelled out to his players that he wanted them to strive to get the No. 1 seed so they could have home-court advantage in a rematch with the Miami Heat. This season the Pacers realize it's going to take some strong work to keep their playoff streak of four consecutive seasons going.
"It's all about how good can we be, what type of group can we put on the floor to make us competitive," West said. "And try to keep us in the race for a playoff spot."
There was an admirable aggressiveness to the Pacers last season. They believed the timing was right so they went for it, a strategy that isn't exactly trendy in this era of the "three- to five-year plan" that teams sometimes sell to their fans. They set large and public goals and then pushed the limit throughout last season.
President Larry Bird traded three pretty good assets -- Miles Plumlee, Gerald Green and the team's 2014 first-round pick -- for Luis Scola to start last season. Then he made two risky moves midseason, trading Danny Granger for Evan Turner and signing Andrew Bynum. Not everything worked out -- the Pacers got the East's No. 1 seed, but lost to the Heat for a second consecutive year in the Eastern Conference finals.
The Pacers felt comfortable making these moves because their core was young, and even if it didn't work out they felt they'd have time to retool. There was no way they considered that both George, who suffered a terrible broken leg over the summer, and Stephenson would be gone this season.
George said this week he thinks he could return late in the season or possibly for the playoffs. Seeing him walk without crutches this week was certainly encouraging, but his being back in a meaningful way this season is unrealistic as far as the team sees it.
Rather, the Pacers have to quietly face the fact that with West and Roy Hibbert both owning player options for next season, it's unclear if the core they expertly constructed will ever be together again.
Certainly, the franchise would've handled Stephenson's contact talks differently if they had the benefit of hindsight. Though it was somewhat obscured by all the other things happening in the league, the dynamics of Stephenson's departure to Charlotte via free agency was one of the most puzzling things that unfolded this past summer.
The Pacers and Stephenson were just $300,000 apart per year in salary, and he ultimately signed with the Hornets for the higher amount. There was a dispute in terms of length of the deal -- the Pacers wanting five years and Stephenson wanting to go shorter -- but since the money was reasonably close, it seemed there was room to find a deal. If Charlotte had offered a max-level contract, like the offer sheet they signed Gordon Hayward to before the Utah Jazz matched it, then it would be understandable. But the three years and $27 million Stephenson took, with the last year being a friendly team option, seemed to be something the Pacers could have managed easily.
But acrimony developed during the talks; the Pacers were unwilling to come off their initial offer and Stephenson was unwilling to give them a final chance to match the contract he ultimately signed with Charlotte. After four years of relationship-building that saw Stephenson develop from a risky draft pick to a front-line player, it was odd and unfortunate that the end had an air of pettiness. At that stage of the game, there wasn't room for pettiness.
It especially looks bad for the Pacers given George's injury. The team simply wasn't in position to replace Stephenson even when George was healthy. It is true that Stephenson wasn't always popular in the locker room and his bad habits on the floor often caused issues. But the talent drain without him would've been felt even if George were still in the lineup.
There is some belief in the Pacers' organization that going into a season with fewer expectations will actually provide some benefits. Last season, the Pacers were a little jolted when they started getting opposing teams' best efforts every night, and the spotlight was glaring when they started having issues in the second half of the season. As owners of the league's best record for months, the attention they were paid on gossip websites hit some players hard and was absolutely a distraction.
The Pacers have started this preseason with a mantra to have a renewed focus to stay closer-knit as a team, a passive reference to Stephenson's sometimes anti-team maneuvers. The idea is that chemistry can make up for losses elsewhere, which is a reasonable concept in the always-fragile world of the NBA.
"From a team standpoint, we need to just come together and make sure we play together," Hibbert said. "We need to share the ball, make sure everybody gets a little piece of the pie."
There's been talk of watching San Antonio Spurs' game tape to try to mimic how they share the ball, which is a goal for just about every team at every level. The Pacers hope they have a better long-distance shooting roster, and that better ball movement will create better shots (a classic training camp credo).
Hibbert spent part of the offseason working with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Hibbert said he drew on Abdul-Jabbar's devotion to martial arts and the importance of balance, noting that sometimes he lost it at times last season. Though Hibbert didn't specify, perhaps his tutor also worked on mental balance because Hibbert's emotional swings often were his own undoing when adversity struck last season.
Hibbert did some analytics study in the offseason, realizing just how far his shooting percentage dipped with each foot he moved away from the basket. In general, the Pacers -- who had some of the worst spacing in the league at times in their offense last season -- are focusing on getting better in that area.
"It's accurate to say we're going to be different," Vogel said. "But it doesn't mean we're not going to be just as good."
When they're at their best, the Pacers should still be an excellent defensive team with top-level rim defender Hibbert in the middle, and they have developed a strong home-court advantage the last several years. They have an experienced roster, and West is a stabilizing force who still has the ability to carry the load on certain nights.
But there are going to be more long nights than the Pacers have gotten used to lately.
"I learned a long time ago that in sports you're either getting better or you're getting worse; there is no stay the same," West said.
"We've taken a step back."