Midseason all-stars: Starting pitchers
Tristan H. Cockcroft [ARCHIVE]
ESPN.com
July 3, 2012
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It's All-Star time, and with it the fun of selecting a Midsummer Classic team …

… then the inevitable aftereffect of it being torn apart, as we seek to nitpick the many snubs.

It's as true in fantasy baseball as it is in the real game, because there are countless players who warrant kudos for their performances. At the same time, it's impossible to honor everyone; there are limits to everything, right?

Nevertheless, selecting All-Stars is one of the "fun" processes in baseball, and in fantasy as well. So this week, we're selecting our Fantasy Baseball Midseason All-Stars, players whose performances carried the most weight compared to their preseason expectations. But understand: This means that average draft position comes into play as much as in-season performance does, and that pitchers like Justin Verlander, the No. 3 starting pitcher on our Player Rater, is an inevitable "snub." Verlander has been excellent this year, no question. But he was also the No. 2 starting pitcher selected on average in the preseason, and at the cost of a second-rounder (ADP: 13.0). He was a pitcher who should have performed as he has, and it's for that reason he's excluded from the group below.

Let's get started. Today, we select nine starting pitchers to our All-Star squad, beginning with our …

Team Captain: R.A. Dickey, New York Mets

R.A. Dickey #43 SP
New York Mets 2012 STATS

GM16 W12 L1 BB25 K116 ERA2.15

The A-No. 1 All-Star so far in 2012, Dickey's half-season has been one of the most compelling fantasy baseball stories of the past decade, let alone year. He's the only pitcher to rank among the top five in the majors in the four prominent starting-pitcher-influenced rotisserie categories: He's first in wins (12) and WHIP (0.88), and fourth in ERA (2.15) and strikeouts (116). And his statistical accomplishments haven't been of the fluky variety, supported by the game's sixth-best FIP (2.80) and third-best xFIP (2.82). At one point, he had back-to-back one-hit shutouts (June 13 and 18) and, in fact, had an outrageous six-start stretch (May 22-June 18) during which he had six wins, six quality starts, an ERA of 0.18, a WHIP of 0.53 and 63 strikeouts in 48⅔ innings.

And -- this is where the "story" part comes in -- he's a knuckleballer.

Why he's an All-Star: Dickey was the topic of the June 19 "60 Feet 6 Inches," which put his performance into historical perspective. The "why" is discussed in detail right here. But to add a postscript, during his past two starts, the first of which was the shaky Sunday night effort against the New York Yankees, these have been his splits on knucklers clocked 78 mph or faster:

First 14 starts: 194 PA-enders, .111 BAA, 40.7 K%, 1.0 BB%, 32 Miss%
Past 2 starts: 31 PA-enders, .179 BAA, 35.5 K%, 3.2 BB%, 31 Miss%

What's in store during the second half: Those knuckler splits represent hardly anything more than minimal, expected regression, and it supports Dickey's candidacy as one of the top 20 fantasy starters during the season's second half, if not top 10. There's no historical data to forecast a likely path. If Dickey can keep throwing his knuckler with both the velocity and accuracy he has shown to date, there's no reason his ERA shouldn't be below three from today forward, with a K's-per-nine ratio of at least eight. The result, come October, could well mean legitimate candidacy for the National League Cy Young Award.

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

Matt Cain #18 SP
San Francisco Giants 2012 STATS

GM16 W9 L3 BB23 K114 ERA2.53

Why he's an All-Star: Cain was the highest-drafted starting pitcher on the team, but with an average draft position of 61.9, he fell outside of the top 10, ranking 14th. All he has done since is prove everyone very, very foolish to exclude him from that group, ranking among the game's top 10 in three of the four primary rotisserie categories, his ERA (2.53, 11th) the only one falling just short. He has a perfect game to his credit, worth 101 on the Bill James Game Score scale. Coupled with the 96 he managed in an April 13 start, he boasts two of the four best individual-game performances of 2012 using that statistic. Even better: He already has nine wins, putting him five shy of matching his career high (14, 2009) and on pace for 18.

What's in store during the second half: Cain's FIP (2.93) and xFIP (3.49) compare favorably with his 2011 numbers in those categories (2.91/3.78) and back him up as a legitimate fantasy ace. Last season, he managed a 2.64 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 14 second-half starts, the only black mark that his Giants failed to support him, leading to a measly four wins. This year's team, at least, is slightly improved, averaging 3.96 runs per game to 2011's 3.52 (which ranked second-worst in the majors). If you're looking for the "safest" member of this squad, the pitcher most certain to duplicate his first-half statistics during the second half, Cain is your guy.

Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox

Chris Sale #49 SP
Chicago White Sox 2012 STATS

GM15 W9 L2 BB24 K94 ERA2.27

Why he's an All-Star: Fantasy owners knew who Sale was, his ADP 193.9, or the equivalent of 56th had he been starting-pitching-eligible in ESPN leagues on draft day, but there were oodles of questions surrounding him, even as deep as a month into the year. Did he have a deep-enough arsenal to handle the transition from relief to starting? Could he handle a starter's workload deep into the year? After the White Sox inexplicably returned him to the bullpen and declared him their closer during the first week of May -- claiming an injury as their rationale -- only to restore him to their rotation within the week, fantasy owners wondered whether the injury or role shift might have an adverse impact on his number. Sale answered his critics, and how: He won six of nine starts since that week in May, including six quality starts, with a 2.02 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 9.24 K's-per-nine ratio. For the season, he's third among qualified starters with an average Bill James Game Score of 63.9, and he's fourth in FIP (2.58).

Questions: (Mostly) answered.

What's in store during the second half: The "mostly" above lingers only in regard to the workload inquiry. Sale tossed just 71 innings in 2011 and threw a personal-high 136⅔ between college, the minors and majors in 2010, and he has thrown 95⅓ so far this season, for a pace of 195⅓. While there has been nary a whisper of an innings cap since the season started, White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper said in January that Sale would face one. Does the team's current first-place standing change that? Perhaps, but even if the "kid gloves" come off, Sale's numbers might suffer due to fatigue as he breezes past his previous season high. His skills are legit. The reason he's...
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