Myth vs. reality -- April edition
We're three weeks into another fun-filled baseball season. And here's what we know:
Matt Kemp has a chance to be pretty good.
In Justin Verlander's next commercial shoot, he'll be debuting his Philip Humber impression.
And we don't recommend you start saving loose change for your 2012 Cubs World Series tickets.
But what else do we know -- really know -- about where this season is heading? That's what Rumblings and Grumblings is here to help with. So it's time for this year's April Guide to Myth or Reality.
Boston Red Sox Record: 8-10, team ERA: 6.08, bullpen ERA: 6.79
Good thing the past few days came along, huh? Once the Red Sox were allowed to stop playing the Tigers, Rangers and Yankees every day, it's amazing how blood-pressure readings started sinking all over New England.
Clearly, this offense will put up some hefty numbers, and that always helps. The Red Sox already have scored in double figures five times. The entire National League West has done it once. But that doesn't mean all of this team's early-season issues were an April mirage.
There's that bullpen (94 baserunners in 54 1/3 IP). Asked whether this could be a playoff team with this relief crew, one scout's pithy reply was: "No way."
There's that outfield, minus the injured Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford. "They've got all extra outfielders playing every day," another scout said.
And there's that apparent disconnect between Bobby Valentine and his clubhouse. "I'm not sure it's fixable," said a third scout, "because Bobby's not going to change. But the game has changed. Players have changed. The manager's got to adjust to the players now. But these are players who won a couple of world championships without Bobby V. I'm not sure they're ever going to buy in."
So the verdict: REALITY. This might be exactly what the 2012 Red Sox are.
Philadelphia Phillies Record: 9-10; scored two runs or fewer eight times in 17 games
They're already 5 games out in a division they've gotten used to dominating. They've already had more three-game losing streaks (two) than they had in their first 56 games last year (one). And the Braves just scored almost as many runs in a week (62) as the Phillies have scored all season (63).
TRIVIALITY
So how much of this is "reality"? There's a lot of division on that topic.
One scout who covers the NL East called the Phillies' offense "horrendous." And it's hard to dispute his reasoning -- that the whole lineup does too much hacking at pitchers' pitches. The Phillies rank near the bottom of the sport in walks (only 37 in 19 games), pitches per plate appearance (just 3.69) and swinging at pitches outside the strike zone (33.6 percent).
But one NL executive was far from ready to write off a team with pitching this good. "Can any team in baseball survive losing its No. 3 and 4 hitters [Chase Utley, Ryan Howard], and be productive?" he asked. "Not just this team. Any team. So if this is real, it's only real until the right side of their infield gets back."
Still, the NL East is better. The Phillies are older. And they've stripped their system of prospects with all those blockbuster deals they've made. "Let's face it," another NL exec said. "They can't afford any more injuries whatsoever. And that's pretty tough, when you've got almost 150 games left."
Obviously, their pitching figures to keep them out of the intensive-care ward. Nevertheless, the verdict here is
REALITY. The road to October looks awfully precarious for a team this beat up and offensively challenged.
Los Angeles Angels Record: 6-13, 9 games out, .301 team OBP
The Angels won't be happy to hear this. But it's possible they've already eliminated themselves in the American League West. It took them 19 games to plummet nine games back of Texas, and no team in the division-play era has found itself that far out at the end of April and charged back to finish first.
The upbeat news for the Angels is this: Their rotation is still great. Albert Pujols will remember how to hit. And Mike Trout is ready for the big time any time the big time is ready for him.
But everyone we surveyed set off flashing lights over a bullpen that has blown five of its first six save opportunities and was the last team in either league to record a save. Consider these not-so-rave reviews:
"Their bullpen is a mess."
"They've got major issues at the back end of the game."
"They don't really have a bullpen. There's not one guy down there I'd trust."
It's hard to envision that the Angels won't address this "mess" somehow. But until they do, our verdict is: REALITY in that bullpen, MYTH everywhere else.
Washington Nationals Record: 14-5, rotation ERA of 1.61
Bet you didn't know that only one other team from our nation's capital has ever started a season this hot. And that was so long ago (1932), Walter Johnson managed it.
Those '32 Washington Senators gave up the fewest runs in their league. And if there's a reason to believe in Washington's 2012 team, it's that this staff might be capable of the same sort of domination.
"I think it's real," one scout said. "Their starting pitching is really good. And when you've got that kind of starting pitching and you've got so much depth in the bullpen that you can lose the closer [Drew Storen] and you've got a guy who throws like 160 miles an hour [Henry Rodriguez] to replace him, you're going to win a lot of games."
Now obviously, this team isn't going to play .737 baseball all season. And not everybody is sold on an offense that has swung and missed more than any other team in the league. ("A lot of athletes," one scout said. "Not enough contact.")
But the biggest concern was expressed by an NL exec who said: "I think they're for real until they make the predetermined decision to shut the ace down -- and then they're going to come back to normal."
Yessir, no telling how it will affect this group when the Nationals pull the plug on Stephen Strasburg in September. But since they haven't shut him down yet, the verdict on this team is: REALITY -- for now.
Los Angeles Dodgers Record: 13-6, opponent average vs. pitching staff: .217
They went 9-1 in their first 10 games. They went 12-3 in their first 15. Something wild and crazy always happens in the NL West. And it's tempting to conclude that this year's wild and crazy development is this team.
But even though the Dodgers are more games over .500 than they've been in a year and a half, and Kemp is on pace to hit 85 homers and win the octuple crown, the rest of the sport is in wait-and-see mode.
"They've played most of their games against San Diego, Pittsburgh and Houston," one NL executive said. "So you tell me how real this...
MORE MLB COVERAGE